City and Regional Planning / Şehir ve Bölge Planlama
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/4274
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Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1State-Level Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy Stress(Instytut Badan Gospodarczych/Institute of Economic Research (Poland), 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Gajewski, PawelResearch background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed's) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 12Economic Resilience and Regionally Differentiated Cycles: Evidence From a Turning Point Approach in Italy(Wiley, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, UgoThe literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region-specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well-known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 8Validity of Okun’s Law in a Spatially Dependent and Cyclical Asymmetric Context(Savez Ekonomista Vojvodine, 2022) Duran, Hasan EnginThe current article analyzes the validity of Okun’s Law and sizable distortions that can occur in the estimation when spatial dependence and cyclical asymmetric impacts are not considered, which is a concern commonly ignored by the existing literature. Primarily spatial panel regressions (SDM, SAR, and SEM) and nonparametric regressions along with specification tests are adopted in terms of the methodology (such as panel unit root tests, panel cointegration, Moran’s I and Geary’s C tests of global spatial dependence, spatial LM, and Hausman tests). Additionally, spatial heterogeneity and cross-regional variation in Okun’s Law are investigated by adopting geographically weighted regression, LISA (local indicators for spatial association), and local Geary’s C analysis. A panel of 26 Turkish NUTS-2 regions from 2004 to 2018 was analyzed. The results clearly revealed that failing to incorporate spatial proximity and asymmetric cycle impacts leads to the biased estimation of Okun’s coefficient, such that during the downswing years of the national economy, Okun’s Law holds robustly: unemployment increases quickly in response to a decline in output. In contrast, during upswing years, the size of Okun’s coefficient is relatively much lower. Moreover, spatial dependence and heterogeneity are sizably evident. Okun’s coefficient is demonstrated to vary significantly across regions that have different industrial and labor market characteristics. As a policy implication, it has been understood that the reduction of unemployment is more difficult than initially understood, as economic growth itself does not provide a solution during upswing periods. The necessary special and region-specific policies are discussed throughout the text.Article Citation - WoS: 2Bölgesel İstihdam Dalgalanmalarının Şiddeti, Sebep ve Sonuçları: Türkiye Örneği(Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, 2017) Duran, Hasan Enginİktisadi “dalgalanma derecesi” veya diğer bir deyişle “oynaklık” (volatilite) sık ve şiddetli dalgalanan bir ekonomik yapıyı tanımlar. Günümüze kadar olan süreçte, bölge planlama ve iktisat literatüründe bu hususta araştırmalar yapılmış olsa da, istihdam dalgalanmalarının neden ve sonuçlarına, özellikle coğraf dağılımına ve bölgeler arası farklılıklarına çok az değinilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’deki istihdam dalgalanmalarının sebeplerini araştırmak ve bölgeler arasında oluşan farklı dinamikleri ortaya çıkarmaktır. Diğer bir değişle, istihdam bakımından ülkemizinin hangi bölgeleri daha istikrarlıdır veya daha az şiddetli dalgalanmalara maruz kalmaktadır? Bu durumun altında yatan sebepler nelerdir? Bu sorular, TÜİK’in tanımladığı 26 Düzey-2 istatistiki bölge ve 2004-2013 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. Yöntem olarak, değişik panel regresyonları (Rassal Etki ve En Küçük Kareler yöntemi) ve zaman serisi metotları kullanılmıştır. Yapılan ampirik analizler sonucu iki temel bulgu elde edilmiştir. Birincisi, bölgeler arasında istihdam dalgalanma derecelerinin ciddi bir farklılaşma gösterdiğidir. İkincisi ise, bu durumun altında yatan faktörlerin çokça demografik ve piyasa büyüklüğü ile ilişkili olduğudur. Öyle ki, işgücüne katılımın yüksek olduğu bölgeler, nüfus ve istihdam bakımından büyük olan bölgeler ve ekonomik büyüme hızı ılımlı “ortalama-seviyede” olan bölgeler, daha istikrarlı bir istihdam görüntüsü çizmektedir.Article Türkiye'de Yoksulluğa Bölgesel Bir Bakış(Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, 2015) Duran, Hasan EnginBu çalışmanın amacı 2006-2013 döneminde Türkiye’nin 12-Düzey-I bölgesi için yoksulluğun gelişimini ve coğrafi yayılımını incelemek, yoksulluğun bölgelerarası yakınsayıp yakınsamadığını araştırmaktır. Bu çalışmada TUİK’ten elde edilen medyan gelire bağlı yoksulluk oranları kullanılmıştır. Yöntem olarak, mekansal yoksulluk istatistikleri, Moran I testleri, koşullu Kernel yoğunluk tahminleri ve Markov geçiş olasılık dizeyleri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler üç sonuç doğurmuştur. Birincisi, ülke bazında yoksul kişi sayısı ve yoksulluk oranı azalmıştır. Ancak, bu azalma özellikle Batı bölgelerinde olmuş ve görece az gelişmiş Doğu ve Güneydoğu bölgelerinde artış görülmüştür. İkincisi, Yoksulluk ülke içerisinde mekana bağlı kümeler şeklinde oluşmuştur. Üçüncüsü, yıllar içinde bölgesel yoksulluk oranları birbirine yakınsamamaktadır.Article Citation - Scopus: 9Asymmetries Across Regional Housing Markets in Turkey(Elsevier, 2020) Duran, Hasan Engin; Özdoğan, HilalIn the literature on real estate prices, two main groups of determinants are primarily considered; speculative and fundamental variables. Empirical literature in the areas has, however, several shortcomings. First, although existing studies have analysed the role played by speculative factors, none of the studies, have measured precisely the relative importance of speculative and fundamental variables. We aim at doing this. Moreover, the literature has measured the speculation only by analysing backward-looking behavior. We improve this analysis by considering also forward-looking expectations. Second, in terms of cross-regional determinants, the literature has largely considered economic and demographic variables whereas geographical and cultural variables have been ignored. We intend to incorporate them. Hence, aim of this paper is to understand the dynamics behind the housing prices in 26 Turkish regions between 2010:1–2016:9. We employ range of econometric methods such as Vector-Autoregressions, Unit Root Analysis, Cholesky Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, Impulse-Response Functions, Panel Regressions, Lagrange Multiplier Spatial Dependence Tests and Granger Causality Tests. As an outcome, three results emerge. First, housing price appreciations are so heterogeneous across regions. Second, role of speculative behaviour is quite significant. Third, regions which have high urbanization, population, crime rate, trade openness, seaside and cultural density experience faster housing appreciations. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 10Employment Volatility in Lagging and Advanced Regions: the Italian Case(Wiley, 2020) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, UgoThe presence of cycles characterizes all economic systems, but economic cycles have differentiated spatial impacts. Some regions have broader cycles with respect to the country, while others tend to be less responsive to shocks and hence have narrower cycles. Being exposed to broader cycles, that is, greater volatility, may increase the strain on a regional economic system. This paper investigates the different responsiveness to cyclical forces and volatility of regions in the long run. It does so by using quarterly employment data for the Nuts2 Italian regions over almost 40 years before and during the period 1978-2016. Explored in particular are the cross-regional variations in employment volatility and the reasons for the patterns observed, as well as whether they have changed the following different macroeconomic policy regimes. The paper identifies the break dates of different regimes, and these regime changes will be related to policy modifications, such as the implementation of the European Monetary Union. The determinants of this regional volatility appear to be quite stable, so that the changes in volatility are explained by how these determinants have changed overtime and how they are unevenly distributed in space. In particular, the lagging regions of the country suffer, in addition to lower production and income, from higher volatility due to a structure which is weaker and more unstable. Volatility can hence be an additional issue for lagging regions.Article Citation - Scopus: 3Regional Inequality and International Trade in Turkey: a Dynamic Spatial Panel Approach(İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, 2017) Duran, Hasan Engin; Erdem, UmutAim of the present article1 is to investigate the impact of trade liberalization on the evolution of regional income inequalities in Turkey between 2004-2011. Despite the large body of literature on this subject, there exists several directions which needs to be further explored. i. so far in the literature, the concept of trade openness is too broadly defined. However, it is not only ‘trade’ per se that can affect the regional economies but the composition of trade is also of great importance (Rodriquez-Pose and Gill, 2006). Indeed, it can be partitioned into two components, such as exports and imports. We analyze separately the impact of each component on the evolution of regional inequalities. ii. in most of the empirical studies dealing with this issue, neighboring regions are assumed to have no spatial economic interconnection between each other. We, therefore, incorporate spatial spillovers of trade and growth into our analysis. Our results are summarized in two groups: First, regional inequalities in Turkey are quite sizable but tend to decline over the period of analyses. Second, initially poorer regions that experience an export-based liberalization tend to grow faster than richer ones. Imports, on the other hand, have an opposite effect. © 2017, Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, Faculty of Architecture. All rights reserved.Article Citation - Scopus: 10Asymmetries in Regional Development: Does Tfp or Capital Accumulation Matter for Spatial Inequalities?(Elsevier Ltd., 2019) Duran, Hasan EnginIn the literature on regional inequalities, commonly adopted Neo-Classical theoretical framework (Y=AK ? (hL) 1?? ) implies that disparities may arise for two reasons, either due to differences in factor endowments or TFP differentials. In the current study, we address the following rarely examined questions: i. Do regional income inequalities arise due to TFP or factor endowment disparities across regions? ii. What's their relative contribution to the level of and change in regional inequality? Our dataset covers the period 2004–2014 and 81 Turkish provinces. We use mathematical decompositions, Panel unit root, panel VAR and generalized impulse-response analyses. Results are summarized in two groups. First, the main contributor to income inequality is the disparity in regional factor endowments, whereas TFP differentials are relatively less influential. Second, the main source of decline in disparities seems to be the narrowing of TFP differences. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.Article Citation - Scopus: 3Structural Change and Output Volatility Reduction in Oecd Countries: Evidence of the Second Great Moderation(Springer Verlag, 2019) Duran, Hasan EnginIn this article, we provide new, novel evidence for a more recent structural break (in 2010) indicating a greater moderation of output volatility compared to the well-known break during the mid-1980s. The period of analysis runs from 1962Q2 to 2018Q3. It covers 26 OECD countries. In terms of methodology, it has mainly been used as the measures of conditional and unconditional volatility and procedures of structural break detection (Inclan–Tiao test and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model). As a result, it has been found that output greatly stabilized following the structural break at 2010Q1 in the post-era of 2008/09 global financial crisis. Moreover, output stabilization is robustly evident for 24 (out of 26) OECD countries. From a political standpoint, it is implied that the Keynesian view may be influential in this moderation. Government expenditures and fiscal programs, regulations of financial markets against the sub-prime lending and limitations to trade of mortgage-backed securities might have been the main driver of stability. Rapid improvement of digitalization and technical productivity may be regarded as another relevant reason that might have contributed to the stabilization process. © 2019, The Author(s).