City and Regional Planning / Şehir ve Bölge Planlama
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/4274
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Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Socio-Economic and Development Disparities Over the Long-Run: Exploring Spatial Heterogeneities in the Case of Turkey(Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2024) Duran, Hasan Engin; Cifci, Burcu Degerli; Karabakan, Berfin; Dogan, FehmiThe aim of this paper is to explore the evolution of socioeconomic development and income disparities and convergence patterns across Turkish provinces, emphasizing the impact of spatial heterogeneities. We propose two types of contributions to the literature. First, most of the studies that apply the 13- convergence method presume a unique 13 parameter, assuming that all regions homogenously converge to the steady state at the same pace. However, we argue that relaxing this assumption by way of considering spatial heterogeneities might be more informative. Second, we provide a simple solution to a severe problem: The neoclassical model assumes a monotonic saddle path along which economic fluctuations are not considered, which might be particularly influential with regard to convergence when the time span is too short to capture long-term evolution. Many empirical studies cover only short periods, which may be easily dominated by recessions or expansions, significantly biasing the results. To overcome this problem, we look into two datasets covering long periods (1963-2017 and 1975-2021). Having applied various empirical methods, such as spatial regressions, GWR and nonparametric regressions, we obtain several results. First, at the country level, there is empirical evidence of regional convergence and decreasing development inequalities. Second, however, this convergence process is not valid in all areas. We conclude that there is nonnegligible spatial heterogeneity that should be taken into account in such analyses.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1State-Level Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy Stress(Instytut Badan Gospodarczych/Institute of Economic Research (Poland), 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Gajewski, PawelResearch background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed's) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 12Economic Resilience and Regionally Differentiated Cycles: Evidence From a Turning Point Approach in Italy(Wiley, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, UgoThe literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region-specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well-known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 4Region-Specific Turning Points in Territorial Economic Resilience: a Business Cycle Approach To Turkey(Routledge, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, PeterAlmost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009-20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession.Article The Relationship Between Transportation Demand and Supply: Granger-Causality Test Using Time-Series Data(Pamukkale Üniversitesi, 2022) Duvarcı, Yavuz; Duran, Hasan EnginTransport demand and supply are deemed to determine each other in a cyclic manner. The major idea has been that the demand is usually the preceding one. However, in urban cases, usually the land use variables in place of supply interfere this process. Cleansing the land use variables, the regional/national level variable pairs of demand and supply are employed to analyze the cause-effect mechanism. For objectivity, the Granger-causality test (GCT) is used to understand the relationship between transportation demand and supply. The Analyses were made at four dimensions; (a)whether the nexus is one-directional or bi-directional, (b)its significance level, (c)whether demand or supply is the preceding, (d)whether the effects are short-term or long-term. Using the Turkish statistics, the GCT results showed that, in the short/medium run, overwhelmingly the supply variables preceded (mostly in railway mode), mostly unidirectional (one-way causality) manner, however, in the long-run almost no relationship was found. In other transportation modes, no significant relationship is observed. Finally, bi-directional relations were usually observed in suburban rail. The investments then should be made according to known demand. Usually, the effects of supply (especially of railways and roadways) could rather fade away in the long-run. Still, no general statement can be made for the demand/supply causality especially in terms of which one is preceding and of the direction of causality. The chaotic nature of the process reigns over with the changing conditions.Research Project Mevcut mahalle parklarının "İhtiyaca Dayalı Hakçalık" açısından değerlendirilmesi: İzmir'deki mahalle pParklarını kimler neden kullanıyor ve kullan(a)mıyor?(2019) Şenol, Fatma; Duran, Hasan Engin; Atay Kaya, İlgi; Şentürk, Burcu; Kaştaş Uzun, İpekBu proje, bireylerin mahalle parkı erişim ve kullanımını, nesnel ve algısal yapılı ve sosyal çevre özelliklerinin etkilediğini, ancak yapılı çevre düzenlemelerinin parkları öncelikle kullanması gerekenlerin (öncelikle çocuklar, çocuklu ev kadınları, yaşlılar ve düşük gelirliler) yaşam koşul ve ihtiyaçlarını gözardı edebildiğini; ve bunun ise adaletsizlik hissine ve parkların az sayıda kişiye erişimiyle kamu kaynaklarının israfına yol açtığını kabul eder. Proje, İzmir?deki mahalle parklarına kimlerin neden ve hangi koşullarda eriş(eme)diği ve kullan(ama)dığını kent, mahalle ve park ölçeğindeki nesnel ve algısal yapılı ve sosyal çevre özelliklerini tespitle değerlendirmiştir. İzmir?de özellikle park-ihtiyaç gruplarının (çocuklar, kadınlar, yaşlılar ve düşük gelirlilerin) mahalle parklarını kullan(ma)ma neden ve koşullarını inceleyen Proje, kamusal kaynakla ve kamu sağlığına yönelik yaratılan parkların kullanımını belirleyen yapılı çevre düzenlemelerinin ihtiyaca-dayalı hakçalığa dayanarak geliştirilmesini ve ilgili araştırma araçlarıyla incelenmesini savunur. Proje bu savunu ve araçlarının il ve kent, mahalle ve park ölçeğinde ve park-ihtiyaç gruplarının mahalle parklarına erişebilirliğini etkileyen koşulların incelenmesinde nasıl kullanılabileceğini uygulamalı araştırmıştır. Dolayısıyla, sağlıklı yaşam çevreleri ve kamusal alanların herkesçe kullanımını hedefleyen kamu ve sivil aktörler için hem yöntemler ve mevcut araçların kullanımına dair rehberlik hem de park kullanımını etkileyen yapılı çevre düzenlemelerine yönelik müdahale alanlarının tarifi hedeflenmiştir. Bulgularımıza göre; İzmir?de bazı park-ihtiyaç gruplarının mahalle oranlarının ve park alan miktarlarının mekansal dağılımları arasında ters orantılı ilişki vardır. ?Parkzengini bölgelerdeki? parklar, park çevresi ve park içi faaliyet alanlarının niceliksel ve niteliksel özelliklerine bağlı olarak (iklim koşulları, konfor ve güvenlik sebepli) ve konut içi açık alanlara erişim sebebiyle az veya dikkatli kullanılmaktadır. Bu bölgelerde ağırlıkla park içine yönelik olumlu müdahaleler özellikle 55+ yaş grupları, bekar veya çocuklu kadınlar ve 14-22 yaş genç nüfusun park kullanımını arttıracaktırConference Object Citation - Scopus: 2Lighting Quality and Work Performance Based on Glazing Types and Dynamic Led Lighting(IEEE, 2022) Köse, Fatma Büşra; Tayfur, Gökmen; Duran, Hasan Engin; Kazanasmaz, Zehra TuğçeThe combination of daylight characteristics and LED lighting quantities determines offices' visual environment. Lighting conditions can influence office workers' health and work performance. This study is an experimental one containing lighting measurements in two offices, subjective performance tests, and questionnaires to find out how work performance, lighting preferences, and satisfaction with lighting quality modify in terms of various glass types and dynamic LED lighting quantities. Glass types have strong impacts on contrast tests on paper and luminance which are corresponding to work performance. Regarding lighting quality, it strongly relates to the homogeneity of light, the impression of artificial light and the perception of objects' textures and color, contrast balance between paper and the surrounding. When the glass was modified in offices, we observed that participants preferred to change the CCT setting of LED by remote control, and in relation to that the eye-level illuminance and SPDs showed significant changes. So, the findings depicted the importance of the choice of glass types concerning LED lighting settings in terms of the above variables.Article Citation - WoS: 17Citation - Scopus: 15Analyzing Housing Price Determinants in Izmir Using Spatial Models(Elsevier, 2022) Sayın, Zeynep Melike; Elburz, Zeynep; Duran, Hasan EnginThe vast majority of the studies on house price dynamics focus on either structural/locational/demographic variables in a cross-sectional setting (i.e., hedonic price modeling) or on the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals in a time series framework. In this work, we argue that both approaches fall short of providing adequate information as cross-sectional analyses largely ignore the macro-dynamics, whereas time series approaches fail to incorporate the cross-sectional dimension. Current work combines both dimensions in a panel framework and provides, in this way, a methodological contribution as well as more informative analyses as it captures the impact of a wide array of variables. Thus, this study examines the housing prices in Izmir/Turkey by adopting the above-mentioned dimensions with both panel and spatial panel regressions. The study area consists of 212 neighborhoods located in different districts of Izmir. The period of analysis covers 30 months between 2017 and 2019. As an outcome of the empirical analyses, both structural/demographic, and macroeconomic variables were found evidently important. Hence, it is understood that all dimensions (structural/locational/demographic, macroeconomic) should be incorporated into comprehensive modeling. A high spatial dependence and positive spatial spillover effects were also detected.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 13Heterogenous Responses To Monetary Policy Regimes: a Regional Analysis for Turkey, 2009-2019(Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Karahasan, Burhan CanThe heterogeneous response of regions to interest rate shocks is a severe issue that reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. While the impact of interest rate shocks is central on policymaking, less has been discussed about the spatial heterogeneity in influencing macroeconomic policy implementations. In order to fill this gap, the authors explore regional responses to monetary policy in developing countries, such as Turkey. The main aim of the paper is to investigate how different regions adjust the extent of real economic activity in response to an exogenous country-wide shock in the interest rate policy. The analyses cover 81 Turkish provinces using monthly data from January 2009 to November 2019. To consider temporal and spatial patterns in the same framework, time-series analyses via unit root, co-integration, and VAR with spatial methods have been combined, including exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric models. Preliminary findings validate that regional economic activity measured by employment responses is heterogeneous across provinces and policy regimes. Among the different determinants in assessing responsiveness to monetary policy shocks, interest rate, broad credit channels, and certain regional demographics have explanatory power. Moreover, sizeable spatial spillovers have been detected, which are believed to be crucial in evaluating the externalities and the exact impact of the country-wide policy shock in Turkey. Combined results indicate that the macroeconomic policy impact and spatial externalities are visible only during monetary expansion periods.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 8Validity of Okun’s Law in a Spatially Dependent and Cyclical Asymmetric Context(Savez Ekonomista Vojvodine, 2022) Duran, Hasan EnginThe current article analyzes the validity of Okun’s Law and sizable distortions that can occur in the estimation when spatial dependence and cyclical asymmetric impacts are not considered, which is a concern commonly ignored by the existing literature. Primarily spatial panel regressions (SDM, SAR, and SEM) and nonparametric regressions along with specification tests are adopted in terms of the methodology (such as panel unit root tests, panel cointegration, Moran’s I and Geary’s C tests of global spatial dependence, spatial LM, and Hausman tests). Additionally, spatial heterogeneity and cross-regional variation in Okun’s Law are investigated by adopting geographically weighted regression, LISA (local indicators for spatial association), and local Geary’s C analysis. A panel of 26 Turkish NUTS-2 regions from 2004 to 2018 was analyzed. The results clearly revealed that failing to incorporate spatial proximity and asymmetric cycle impacts leads to the biased estimation of Okun’s coefficient, such that during the downswing years of the national economy, Okun’s Law holds robustly: unemployment increases quickly in response to a decline in output. In contrast, during upswing years, the size of Okun’s coefficient is relatively much lower. Moreover, spatial dependence and heterogeneity are sizably evident. Okun’s coefficient is demonstrated to vary significantly across regions that have different industrial and labor market characteristics. As a policy implication, it has been understood that the reduction of unemployment is more difficult than initially understood, as economic growth itself does not provide a solution during upswing periods. The necessary special and region-specific policies are discussed throughout the text.