City and Regional Planning / Şehir ve Bölge Planlama

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/4274

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Subject: search.filters.subject.Monetary policy

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  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 8
    Citation - Scopus: 13
    Heterogenous Responses To Monetary Policy Regimes: a Regional Analysis for Turkey, 2009-2019
    (Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Karahasan, Burhan Can
    The heterogeneous response of regions to interest rate shocks is a severe issue that reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. While the impact of interest rate shocks is central on policymaking, less has been discussed about the spatial heterogeneity in influencing macroeconomic policy implementations. In order to fill this gap, the authors explore regional responses to monetary policy in developing countries, such as Turkey. The main aim of the paper is to investigate how different regions adjust the extent of real economic activity in response to an exogenous country-wide shock in the interest rate policy. The analyses cover 81 Turkish provinces using monthly data from January 2009 to November 2019. To consider temporal and spatial patterns in the same framework, time-series analyses via unit root, co-integration, and VAR with spatial methods have been combined, including exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric models. Preliminary findings validate that regional economic activity measured by employment responses is heterogeneous across provinces and policy regimes. Among the different determinants in assessing responsiveness to monetary policy shocks, interest rate, broad credit channels, and certain regional demographics have explanatory power. Moreover, sizeable spatial spillovers have been detected, which are believed to be crucial in evaluating the externalities and the exact impact of the country-wide policy shock in Turkey. Combined results indicate that the macroeconomic policy impact and spatial externalities are visible only during monetary expansion periods.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 6
    Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: Turkey Case
    (Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies, 2014) Duran, Hasan Engin; Erdem, Umut
    Monetary policy is primarily designed for national purposes, say price stability. However, its impact may vary significantly across regions. Why some regions respond more strongly to monetary policy is a challenging topic both theoretically and empirically. Indeed, three main hypothesis on this issue have been put forward: (i) regions with high share of manufacturing, (ii) regions that include higher proportion of small-scale firms and banks, (iii) regions which are more open to trade are likely to respond more strongly to changes in monetary policy. Although these hypotheses have been thoroughly and heatedly discussed by a strand of scholars, far little attention has been paid to the role of geographical factors and spatial spillovers. In fact, we precisely address this issue. Aim of the present paper is to examine the validity of three hypotheses and, additionally, the role of spatial spillovers in regional monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey. Our analyses indicate three major results: First, provinces respond quite heterogeneously to unexpected changes in monetary policy. Second, spatial spillovers and geographical proximity clearly matter in monetary transmission such that neighboring regions are likely to exhibit similar reactions to monetary policy. Third, among the hypothesis above bank size and trade openness are found to be significant.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 13
    Convergence of Regional Economic Cycles in Turkey
    (John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2013) Duran, Hasan Engin
    Dissimilar economic fluctuations and asymmetric shocks across the regions of a country might create severe policy distortions that, under these circumstances, aggregate policy interventions (such as taxation and interest rates), are likely to be sub-optimal for at least a fraction of the regions. For instance, monetary policy can hardly satisfy the needs of all regions when some of the regions are experiencing a boom while others are in a recession phase. For these reasons, similarity of regional business cycles and their convergence are highly desirable from a policy viewpoint. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to provide empirical evidence and policy implications in that context. In particular, I analyze business cycle correlations across Turkish provinces and the tendency of these cycles to converge over the period of analysis between 1975-2000 and 2004-2008 (for Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics [NUTS]-2 regions). I find that regional business cycle asymmetries have tended to decrease in recent decades. This result, although it seems to provide evidence in favor of rising correlations, shows that the convergence process is rather slow and there still exist asymmetries across the regional business cycles.