Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection

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Access Right: Open AccessAuthor: search.filters.author.Duran, Hasan Engin

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  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 5
    Citation - Scopus: 7
    Polycentricity and Regional Economic Resilience: a Ridge Regression Approach
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Cifci, Burcu Degerli; Duran, Hasan Engin
    Resilience and "polycentricity" have surged as popular concepts over the recent decades, although the link between the two has not yet been investigated empirically. Identification of this relationship and its theoretical justification are politically crucial to shed light on prospective policies for urbanization and regionalization. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of polycentricity/monocentricity on the regional resilience of Turkish (Nuts-2) regions against the global financial crisis in 2008/09. This paper also identifies the channels through which it can influence resilience. Through the application of a rich set of empirical tools, including computation of monocentricity degree, resistance, recovery, and adaptability indexes based on national and regional business cycle turning points, LOESS, RIDGE regressions, and inferential mediation tests, three main conclusions were obtained. First, polycentric regions were evidently more resistant to the crisis compared to monocentric morphologies; the later were more industrialized and open to trade, which made them more vulnerable to the crisis. Second, polycentric spatial structures were found to recover more quickly compared to monocentric regions. Third, monocentric regions clearly adapt better to long-term trajectories. In sum, the wellknown strategy of the European Union rooted in "polycentric development" can still be valid for the purposes such as resisting to and recovering from economic disruptions. However, in the long-run, polycentrilization can hardly be seen as an optimal strategy, particularly in the context of adapting to the future trajectories.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 2
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box-Cox Transformed Arma Process Trend Smoothing (Bats) Forecasting
    (Wiley, 2025) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Cifci, Burcu Degerli
    The vast majority of the empirical studies on regional economic inequalities has analyzed the past evolutions, while the future trajectories are often ignored. Despite, no methods exist to predict the future precisely, it is worthwhile to shed light on the prospective tendencies in order to plan and formulate the policies at the present time. The current study addresses the following questions; Will regional convergence continue in Europe? Which regions will become more prosperous? What are the future determinants of regional growth? Our dataset covers 236 NUTS-2 regions belonging to the 28 European Countries for the period 2000-2022. In terms of methodology, we use a nonlinear forecasting technique BATS ("Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components") model and Spatial Durbin Regressions along with explorative maps and descriptive statistics. As an outcome of the analyses, we obtained several remarkable results. First, regional inequalities are expected to widen by 2050 indicating the evidence of regional divergence. Second, spatial poles of prosperity are likely to change substantially. Most of the regions belonging to the countries in the "Mediterranean Basin" are predicted to remain relatively backward while many Eastern European regions are expected to rise in prosperity. Northern and Central European regions are likely to keep their prosperous position. Third, several crucial determinants of future growth patterns are detected. It appeared that younger demographic profile, industrialization and cohesion policies (particularly for CEE regions) have become key factors of future growth performance.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 2
    Is Tourism Specialisation a Trap for Economic Growth? the Case of the Italian Regions
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Biagi, Bianca; Duran, Hasan Engin; Pulina, Manuela
    Tourism activity is a pivotal driver of global economic growth in an era of globalisation. Yet, its ecological footprints call for urgent sustainable practices. This paper enriches intricate interconnections between tourism, economic growth, and sustainability. Novel insights bridge gaps in understanding the effects of domestic and international tourism, regional heterogeneities, and spill-over effects, focusing on Italian regions (2004-2019). Based on a new neoclassical model, this study integrates key indicators beyond Gross Domestic Product and physical capital, encompassing sustainability (renewable energy) and human capital within the KLEM (Capital, Labour, Energy, Materials) specification. These frameworks assess multifaceted dynamics and raise questions about whether high tourism specialisation can lead to a trap for economic growth, development and, ultimately, socio-economic inequalities. Significantly, the research uncovers notable regional heterogeneities, and spill-over effects, shedding light on distinct economic trajectories and challenges, triggering the pursuit of resilience strategies. By highlighting intricate tourism-economy-sustainability connections, this study advances sustainable tourism understanding, urging a delicate balance between tourism's economic benefits and ecosystem concerns. It emphasises the need for eco-conscious practices and economic diversification to ensure harmonious development, aligning with the SDG agenda (UN, 2024).
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Socio-Economic and Development Disparities Over the Long-Run: Exploring Spatial Heterogeneities in the Case of Turkey
    (Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2024) Duran, Hasan Engin; Cifci, Burcu Degerli; Karabakan, Berfin; Dogan, Fehmi
    The aim of this paper is to explore the evolution of socioeconomic development and income disparities and convergence patterns across Turkish provinces, emphasizing the impact of spatial heterogeneities. We propose two types of contributions to the literature. First, most of the studies that apply the 13- convergence method presume a unique 13 parameter, assuming that all regions homogenously converge to the steady state at the same pace. However, we argue that relaxing this assumption by way of considering spatial heterogeneities might be more informative. Second, we provide a simple solution to a severe problem: The neoclassical model assumes a monotonic saddle path along which economic fluctuations are not considered, which might be particularly influential with regard to convergence when the time span is too short to capture long-term evolution. Many empirical studies cover only short periods, which may be easily dominated by recessions or expansions, significantly biasing the results. To overcome this problem, we look into two datasets covering long periods (1963-2017 and 1975-2021). Having applied various empirical methods, such as spatial regressions, GWR and nonparametric regressions, we obtain several results. First, at the country level, there is empirical evidence of regional convergence and decreasing development inequalities. Second, however, this convergence process is not valid in all areas. We conclude that there is nonnegligible spatial heterogeneity that should be taken into account in such analyses.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    State-Level Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy Stress
    (Instytut Badan Gospodarczych/Institute of Economic Research (Poland), 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Gajewski, Pawel
    Research background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed's) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 12
    Citation - Scopus: 12
    Economic Resilience and Regionally Differentiated Cycles: Evidence From a Turning Point Approach in Italy
    (Wiley, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, Ugo
    The literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region-specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well-known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points.
  • Conference Object
    Citation - Scopus: 2
    Lighting Quality and Work Performance Based on Glazing Types and Dynamic Led Lighting
    (IEEE, 2022) Köse, Fatma Büşra; Tayfur, Gökmen; Duran, Hasan Engin; Kazanasmaz, Zehra Tuğçe
    The combination of daylight characteristics and LED lighting quantities determines offices' visual environment. Lighting conditions can influence office workers' health and work performance. This study is an experimental one containing lighting measurements in two offices, subjective performance tests, and questionnaires to find out how work performance, lighting preferences, and satisfaction with lighting quality modify in terms of various glass types and dynamic LED lighting quantities. Glass types have strong impacts on contrast tests on paper and luminance which are corresponding to work performance. Regarding lighting quality, it strongly relates to the homogeneity of light, the impression of artificial light and the perception of objects' textures and color, contrast balance between paper and the surrounding. When the glass was modified in offices, we observed that participants preferred to change the CCT setting of LED by remote control, and in relation to that the eye-level illuminance and SPDs showed significant changes. So, the findings depicted the importance of the choice of glass types concerning LED lighting settings in terms of the above variables.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 8
    Citation - Scopus: 8
    Validity of Okun’s Law in a Spatially Dependent and Cyclical Asymmetric Context
    (Savez Ekonomista Vojvodine, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin
    The current article analyzes the validity of Okun’s Law and sizable distortions that can occur in the estimation when spatial dependence and cyclical asymmetric impacts are not considered, which is a concern commonly ignored by the existing literature. Primarily spatial panel regressions (SDM, SAR, and SEM) and nonparametric regressions along with specification tests are adopted in terms of the methodology (such as panel unit root tests, panel cointegration, Moran’s I and Geary’s C tests of global spatial dependence, spatial LM, and Hausman tests). Additionally, spatial heterogeneity and cross-regional variation in Okun’s Law are investigated by adopting geographically weighted regression, LISA (local indicators for spatial association), and local Geary’s C analysis. A panel of 26 Turkish NUTS-2 regions from 2004 to 2018 was analyzed. The results clearly revealed that failing to incorporate spatial proximity and asymmetric cycle impacts leads to the biased estimation of Okun’s coefficient, such that during the downswing years of the national economy, Okun’s Law holds robustly: unemployment increases quickly in response to a decline in output. In contrast, during upswing years, the size of Okun’s coefficient is relatively much lower. Moreover, spatial dependence and heterogeneity are sizably evident. Okun’s coefficient is demonstrated to vary significantly across regions that have different industrial and labor market characteristics. As a policy implication, it has been understood that the reduction of unemployment is more difficult than initially understood, as economic growth itself does not provide a solution during upswing periods. The necessary special and region-specific policies are discussed throughout the text.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 9
    Asymmetries Across Regional Housing Markets in Turkey
    (Elsevier, 2020) Duran, Hasan Engin; Özdoğan, Hilal
    In the literature on real estate prices, two main groups of determinants are primarily considered; speculative and fundamental variables. Empirical literature in the areas has, however, several shortcomings. First, although existing studies have analysed the role played by speculative factors, none of the studies, have measured precisely the relative importance of speculative and fundamental variables. We aim at doing this. Moreover, the literature has measured the speculation only by analysing backward-looking behavior. We improve this analysis by considering also forward-looking expectations. Second, in terms of cross-regional determinants, the literature has largely considered economic and demographic variables whereas geographical and cultural variables have been ignored. We intend to incorporate them. Hence, aim of this paper is to understand the dynamics behind the housing prices in 26 Turkish regions between 2010:1–2016:9. We employ range of econometric methods such as Vector-Autoregressions, Unit Root Analysis, Cholesky Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, Impulse-Response Functions, Panel Regressions, Lagrange Multiplier Spatial Dependence Tests and Granger Causality Tests. As an outcome, three results emerge. First, housing price appreciations are so heterogeneous across regions. Second, role of speculative behaviour is quite significant. Third, regions which have high urbanization, population, crime rate, trade openness, seaside and cultural density experience faster housing appreciations. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 9
    Citation - Scopus: 10
    Employment Volatility in Lagging and Advanced Regions: the Italian Case
    (Wiley, 2020) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, Ugo
    The presence of cycles characterizes all economic systems, but economic cycles have differentiated spatial impacts. Some regions have broader cycles with respect to the country, while others tend to be less responsive to shocks and hence have narrower cycles. Being exposed to broader cycles, that is, greater volatility, may increase the strain on a regional economic system. This paper investigates the different responsiveness to cyclical forces and volatility of regions in the long run. It does so by using quarterly employment data for the Nuts2 Italian regions over almost 40 years before and during the period 1978-2016. Explored in particular are the cross-regional variations in employment volatility and the reasons for the patterns observed, as well as whether they have changed the following different macroeconomic policy regimes. The paper identifies the break dates of different regimes, and these regime changes will be related to policy modifications, such as the implementation of the European Monetary Union. The determinants of this regional volatility appear to be quite stable, so that the changes in volatility are explained by how these determinants have changed overtime and how they are unevenly distributed in space. In particular, the lagging regions of the country suffer, in addition to lower production and income, from higher volatility due to a structure which is weaker and more unstable. Volatility can hence be an additional issue for lagging regions.