Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148
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Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 1The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box-Cox Transformed Arma Process Trend Smoothing (Bats) Forecasting(Wiley, 2025) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Cifci, Burcu DegerliThe vast majority of the empirical studies on regional economic inequalities has analyzed the past evolutions, while the future trajectories are often ignored. Despite, no methods exist to predict the future precisely, it is worthwhile to shed light on the prospective tendencies in order to plan and formulate the policies at the present time. The current study addresses the following questions; Will regional convergence continue in Europe? Which regions will become more prosperous? What are the future determinants of regional growth? Our dataset covers 236 NUTS-2 regions belonging to the 28 European Countries for the period 2000-2022. In terms of methodology, we use a nonlinear forecasting technique BATS ("Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components") model and Spatial Durbin Regressions along with explorative maps and descriptive statistics. As an outcome of the analyses, we obtained several remarkable results. First, regional inequalities are expected to widen by 2050 indicating the evidence of regional divergence. Second, spatial poles of prosperity are likely to change substantially. Most of the regions belonging to the countries in the "Mediterranean Basin" are predicted to remain relatively backward while many Eastern European regions are expected to rise in prosperity. Northern and Central European regions are likely to keep their prosperous position. Third, several crucial determinants of future growth patterns are detected. It appeared that younger demographic profile, industrialization and cohesion policies (particularly for CEE regions) have become key factors of future growth performance.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 6Well-Being and Geography: Modelling Differences in Regional Well-Being Profiles in Case of Spatial Dependence—evidence From Turkey(MDPI, 2022) Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter; Elburz, ZeynepThe aim of this study is to provide a new quantitative perspective on the geography of well-being using an urban–rural typology and characteristic city size elements in order to detect where people are happier and to examine the determinants of well-being by considering spatial dependence effects. We use 81 NUTS 3 regions and the time period 2012–2019 to analyse the geography of well-being for Turkey with panel and spatial panel models. Our results show that living in an urban area, in general, makes people happy, but that density negatively affects well-being. In addition, city size matters for enhancing well-being. We also analyse the determinants of well-being by using several socio-economic well-being indicators. Next, the aspatial and spatial model results based on spatial econometric regressions show that education, health, employment, and income are all important for well-being, whereas indirect effects (spillovers) of these indicators also exist. Our results indicate that ignoring spatial effects causes a misinterpretation of the effects of critical determinants of well-being in geography.Article Citation - WoS: 16Citation - Scopus: 17Land Suitability Analysis for Vineyard Cultivation in the Izmir Metropolitan Area(MDPI, 2022) Salata, Stefano; Özkavaf Şenalp, Sıla; Velibeyoğlu, Koray; Elburz, ZeynepThe grapevine, so-called Vitis vinifera L., is one of the most diffuse perennial crop plan-tations in the world due to a flourishing market that shaped the landscape and the societal val-ues. Turkey has been a historical vine producer, counting on an overall vineyard extension of 550,000 hectares. Besides, Turkey has some favorable pre-requisites to be one of the most fertile lands for vineyard production: variegated topography, rich soil diversity, heterogeneous morphology, and several micro-climatic conditions. However, establishing a flourishing and fully productive vineyard requires many years, and therefore, the selection and management of sites should be considered with great attention. Within this work, a first land suitability analysis for vineyard production has been established for the entire metropolitan area of Izmir according to the most scientifically-agreed criteria: elevation, slope, aspect, land capability, and solar radiation. These criteria were superim-posed through spatial overlay analysis using Esri ArcGIS (ver.10.8) and evaluated using the Principal Component Analysis technique. The first three bands were then extracted to define the most suitable areas for vineyard production in Izmir. The final layer has been used to define which areas can be considered for future strategic expansion and management. The discussion focuses on the Kozak plateau, where a new policy of vineyard plantation will be promoted with techniques that aim to maintain and revalorize the traditional vineyard landscapes and conserve traditional methods and practices that have evolved with the cultural values of the villagers and producers.