Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148
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Article Uncertainty Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Iznik Lake Watershed, Türkiye(MDPI, 2026) Tezel, Anil Caliskan; Akpinar, Adem; Bor, Asli; Elci, SebnemStudy region: This study focused on the Iznik Lake Watershed in northwestern T & uuml;rkiye. Study focus: Climate change is increasingly affecting water resources worldwide, raising concerns about future hydrological sustainability. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on river streamflow in the Iznik Lake Watershed, a critical freshwater resource in northwestern T & uuml;rkiye. To capture possible future conditions, downscaled climate projections were integrated with the SWAT+ hydrological model. Recognizing the inherent uncertainties in climate models and model parameterization, the analysis examined the relative influence of climate realizations, emission scenarios, and hydrological parameters on streamflow outputs. By quantifying both the magnitude of climate-induced changes and the contribution of different sources of uncertainty, the study provides insights that can guide decision-makers in future management planning and be useful for forthcoming modeling efforts. New hydrological insights for the region: Projections indicate wetter winters and springs but drier summers, with an overall warming trend in the study area. Based on simulations driven by four representative grid points, the results at the Karadere station, which represents the main inflow of the watershed, indicate modest changes in mean annual streamflow, ranging from -7% to +56% in the near future and from +19% to +54% in the far future. Maximum flows (Qmax) exhibit notable increases, ranging from +0.9% to +47% in the near future and from +21% to +63% in the far future, indicating a tendency toward higher peak discharges under future climate conditions. Low-flow conditions, especially in summer, exhibit the greatest relative variability due to near-zero baseline discharges. Relative change analysis revealed considerable differences in Karadere and Findicak sub-catchments, reflecting heterogeneous hydrological responses even within the same basin. Uncertainty analysis, conducted using both an ANOVA-based approach and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), highlighted the dominant influence of climate projections and potential evapotranspiration calculation methods, while land use change contributed negligibly to overall uncertainty.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 13Numerical Analysis of Three Vertical Axis Turbine Designs for Improved Water Energy Efficiency(Mdpi, 2024) Karakaya, Derya; Bor, Asli; Elci, SebnemA hydrokinetic turbine with a vertical axis is specifically designed to harvest the kinetic energy from moving water. In this study, three vertical axis water turbines, namely Gorlov, Darrieus, and Savonius turbines, were compared for their efficiency via numerical modeling for steady-state conditions via the ANSYS 2022 R2 Fluent model. The Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equations (SIMPLE) was implemented with an SST k-omega turbulence model. The dynamic mesh technique, which allows modeling according to changes in angular velocity at each time step, was used to simulate flow around the turbines for six different velocities (from 0.5 to 3 m/s). The efficiency of the turbines was compared and the results were analyzed. The pressure, velocity, and turbulence kinetic energy distributions around the rotor were measured at different rotational angles and results indicated a wider operating range for the Darrieus and Gorlov turbines compared to the Savonius turbine. The highest power coefficient of 0.293 was achieved in the model featuring a Darrieus turbine, corresponding to a TSR value of 1.34, compared to 0.208 for the Gorlov and 0.257 for the Savonius turbine, at TSR values of 1.3 and 1.06, respectively. Numerical modeling results pointed to a significantly higher self-starting capacity for the Savonius turbine compared to the others.