Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148

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Author: search.filters.author.Elburz, ZeynepPublisher: search.filters.publisher.Wiley

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  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 2
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box-Cox Transformed Arma Process Trend Smoothing (Bats) Forecasting
    (Wiley, 2025) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Cifci, Burcu Degerli
    The vast majority of the empirical studies on regional economic inequalities has analyzed the past evolutions, while the future trajectories are often ignored. Despite, no methods exist to predict the future precisely, it is worthwhile to shed light on the prospective tendencies in order to plan and formulate the policies at the present time. The current study addresses the following questions; Will regional convergence continue in Europe? Which regions will become more prosperous? What are the future determinants of regional growth? Our dataset covers 236 NUTS-2 regions belonging to the 28 European Countries for the period 2000-2022. In terms of methodology, we use a nonlinear forecasting technique BATS ("Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components") model and Spatial Durbin Regressions along with explorative maps and descriptive statistics. As an outcome of the analyses, we obtained several remarkable results. First, regional inequalities are expected to widen by 2050 indicating the evidence of regional divergence. Second, spatial poles of prosperity are likely to change substantially. Most of the regions belonging to the countries in the "Mediterranean Basin" are predicted to remain relatively backward while many Eastern European regions are expected to rise in prosperity. Northern and Central European regions are likely to keep their prosperous position. Third, several crucial determinants of future growth patterns are detected. It appeared that younger demographic profile, industrialization and cohesion policies (particularly for CEE regions) have become key factors of future growth performance.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Spiky Metropolitan Landscapes: an Urbanometric Analysis of Growing Agglomerations
    (Wiley, 2025) Elburz, Zeynep; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter
    The spatial configuration of urban systems has garnered significant interest from various disciplines, including urban planners, economists, and ecologists, due to its interconnectedness with various aspects of sustainable development. Research on urban form suggests a departure from the conventional model of a gradually declining density gradient from the city center, giving way to a "spiky" urban landscape characterized by a heterogeneous polycentric pattern. This study aims to examine the recently emerging spiky structure of an urban agglomeration and its determinants, providing insights into the potential prospects of cities. We adopt a new quantitative modeling approach inspired by spatial econometrics and coined here 'urbanometrics'. By utilizing and testing spatial dependence urbanometric models, we seek to elucidate the factors driving these changes, with a specific focus on pluriform urban sprawl in the Mediterranean region, specifically the Izmir city-region. The findings indicate that since the early 2000s, the Izmir city-region has experienced simultaneous decentralization and the emergence of multiple centers, with sharp differences. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the expansion of highway infrastructure, population growth, and existing convertible (agricultural or forest) land contribute to urban sprawl and the emergence of a "spiky" urban landscape.