Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148
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Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 5Meteorological Drought and Trend Effects on Transboundary River Basins in Afghanistan(Springer, 2023) Hayat, Ehsanullah; Tayfur, GökmenAfghanistan, as a landlocked country located within central and southwestern Asia, has an arid to semi-arid climate. Most of the people are involved in agricultural activities, and a major part of the country's gross domestic product depends on agriculture, but the country has the lowest water storage capacity. Consecutive periods of drought and rapid snowmelt due to climate change have made it more challenging for suitable water resource management practices. This study investigates the historical meteorological drought characteristics across the whole country by employing the Reconnaissance Drought Index for the period 1979-2019 using data from 55 meteorological stations. Trends in precipitation and temperature are also investigated using the Mann-Kendall's and the Sen's slope statistical tests. A four-decadal countrywide drought map is generated. Extreme and severe droughts were observed in 1999 and 2000 across the whole country. Moderate drought events have started to occur with a frequency of 3 to 5 years since 1999. The decadal annual rainfall values in each river basin indicate that rainfall has decreased in the last two decades with a significant decline in 1999-2008. The trends of increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation are indications of rapid climate change in the country, especially in the south, west, and southwest regions. Due to the intensity and frequency of the droughts, river flow rates have decreased; and therefore, there is a need for the upstream and downstream neighboring countries to come to terms with the phenomenon of a new normal in the hydrological cycle and accordingly revise new water sharing treaties.Correction 3D modelling of surface spreading and underground dam groundwater recharge: Egri creek subbasin, Turkey(Springer, 2023) Şahin, Yavuz; Tayfur, GökmenArticle Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 53d Modelling of Surface Spreading and Underground Dam Groundwater Recharge: Egri Creek Subbasin, Turkey(Springer, 2023) Şahin, Yavuz; Tayfur, GökmenThis study investigated surface spreading and underground dam recharge methods to replenish groundwater in Turkey's Egri Creek Sub-basin of the Kucuk Menderes River Basin. A three-dimensional numerical model was employed for this purpose. Field and lab data are provided to the model for realistic simulations. Pumping test results were used to determine the aquifer parameters. The laboratory works involved sieve analysis, permeability tests, and porosity and water content prediction. The numerical model's boundary conditions were determined from the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the study area. Initial conditions were expressed regarding water content and pressure head in the vadose zone. The numerical model was satisfactorily validated by simulating water levels in three different pumping wells in the study area. Seven different scenarios, each having a different pool size, were investigated for the surface spreading recharge method. The results showed that a pool size of 30 x 30 m with a 6-m depth basin was the most optimal choice, raising the groundwater level to about 29.3 m. On the other hand, it was found that an underground dam could raise the levels by an average of 9.5 m, which might not be significant to warrant the construction.Article Citation - WoS: 24Citation - Scopus: 27Drought Assessment in the Aegean Region of Turkey(Springer, 2022) Mersin, Denizhan; Gülmez, Ayşe; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Vaheddoost, Babak; Tayfur, GökmenDrought indices are commonly used to monitor the duration and severity of droughts. In this regard, the continuously changing climate regardless of its cause or effect pushes the limit of the water deficit through time and space. Izmir is a raising city in Turkey, which owns various water resources including but not limited to seashores, lakes, river streams, and groundwater aquifers. In this study, the long-term precipitation and temperature records from 14 meteorological stations between 1973 and 2020 (for 47 years) are used to investigate the drought characteristics in Buyuk Menderes, Kucuk Menderes, and Gediz basins located in the Aegean region of Turkey. For this, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Percent of Normal (PNI), and the so-called Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI) are used with consideration to 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month moving averages to investigate the drought patterns. Results showed that the monthly indices depict very similar results for the entire region. However, in the 1980s and 2010s droughts were more severe than the rest of the historical records. When the moving average operator is implemented in the analysis (3-, 6- and 12-month periods), neither SPI nor the SPEI showed the same results at any stations. It is illustrated that the periods of severe and normal drought have occurred in the past, yet the indices that are obtained using average values are generally within the normal limits, but extreme values (extremely arid or extremely wet) occurred occasionally. It is also concluded that although there is a similarity between the implemented indices, the DPI and PNI depict the highest resemblance.Article Citation - WoS: 6Citation - Scopus: 6Kinematic Reverse Flood Routing in Natural Rivers Using Stage Data(Springer, 2022) Tayfur, Gökmen; Moramarco, TommasoIn many developing countries, due to economic constraints, a single station on a river reach is often equipped to record flow variables. On the other hand, hydrographs at the upstream sections may also be needed for especially assessing flooded areas. The upstream flow hydrograph prediction is called the reverse flood routing. There are some reverse flood routing pocedures requiring sophisticated methods together with substantial data requirements. This study proposes a new reverse flood routing procedure, based upon the simple kinematic wave (KW) equation, requiring only easily measurable downstream stage data. The KW equation is first averaged along a channel length at a fixed time, t, assuming that channel width is spatially constant, and then the spatially averaged equation is averaged in time, Δt. The temporally averaged terms are approximated as the arithmetical mean of the corresponding terms evaluated at time t and t + Δt. The Chezy roughness equation is employed for flow velocity, and the upstream flow stage hydrograph is assumed be described by a two parameter gamma distribution (Pearson Type III). The spatially averaged mean flow depth and lateral flow are related to the downstream flow stage. The resulting routing equation is thus obtained as a function of only downstream flow stage, meaning that the method mainly requires measurements of downstream flow stage data besides the mean values of channel length, channel width, roughness coefficient and bed slope. The optimal values of the parameters of reverse flood routing are obtained using the genetic algorithm. The calibration of the model is accomplished by using the measured downstream hydrographs. The validation is performed by comparing the model-generated upstream hydrographs against the measured upstream hydrographs. The proposed model is applied to generate upstream hydrographs at four different river reaches of Tiber River, located in central Italy. The length of river reaches varied from 20 to 65 km. Several upstream hydrographs at different stations on this river are generated using the developed method and compared with the observed hydrographs. The method predicts the time to peak with less than 5% error and peak rates with less than 10% error in the short river reaches of 20 km and 31 km. It also predicts the time to peak and peak rate in other two brances of 45 km and 65 km with less than 15% error. The method satisfactorily generates upstream hydrographs, with an overall mean absolute error (MAE) of 42 m3/s.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 9Empirical, Numerical, and Soft Modelling Approaches for Non-Cohesive Sediment Transport(Springer, 2021) Tayfur, GökmenThis paper reviews the modelling approaches and outstanding issues with regard to non-cohesive sediment transport which has been experimentally and numerically studied for many decades owing to its importance to hydraulic structures, morphology and related areas. About 311 papers are reviewed that included laboratory experiments, field observations, and analytical and numerical modelling studies. The reviewed papers cover the period 1938-2020. Of 311, 95 papers are included in this paper. The modeling approaches include empirical, physics-based, spatially averaged, and soft methods. The empirical models have oversimplified the process while the physics-based models are indispensable when the detailed analysis is required. On the other hand, when the objective is to obtain cumulative sediment loads, it would be advantageous to employ the spatial averaging modelling and/or the soft computing methods due to less computational burden and data requirements. The outstanding issues are related to the particle fall velocity, particle velocity, incipient motion, and transport function that require further experimental investigations especially for unsteady non-uniform transport processes.Book Citation - Scopus: 6Climate Change and Its Effects on Water Resources: Issues of National and Global Security(Springer, 2011) Baba, Alper; Gündüz, Orhan; Friedel, Michael J.; Tayfur, Gökmen; Howard, Ken W.F.; Chambel, AntonioNational and global security can be assessed in many ways but one underlying factor for all humanity is to access to reliable sources of water for drinking, sanitation, food production and manufacturing industry. In many parts of the world, population growth and an escalating demand for water already threaten the sustainable management of available water supplies. Global warming, climate change and sea level rise are expected to intensify the resource sustainability issue in many water-stressed regions of the world by reducing the annual supply of renewable fresh water and promoting the intrusion of saline water into aquifers along sea coasts where 50% of the global population reside. Pro-active resource management decisions are required, but such efforts would be futile unless reliable predictions can be made to assess the impact of the changing global conditions that would impart upon the water cycle and the quality and availability of critical water reserves.