Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148
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Conference Object Cash Flow Forecasting by Using Time Series Methods in Geothermal District Heating Systems: Balcova - Narlidere Case(National Technical University of Athens, 2006) Erdoğmuş, Abdullah Berkan; Özerdem, BarışCash flow forecasting is one of the difficult and important tasks in an economic evaluation of a geothermal investment. Geothermal district heating systems are characterized by a high capital cost. In addition, relatively low operation and maintenance costs occur throughout their life. The aim of this research is to estimate the potential cash flows for Balcova - Narlidere Geothermal District Heating System by using historical data accumulated over a period of time and several forecasting methods: moving average, exponential smoothing, adjusted exponential smoothing and curve fitting functions. Mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD) which is the most common approach to select the appropriate method to a particular time series is used in the selection of the most suitable model. Alternative methods are compared with each other regarding to their MAPD values. It is found that the models represented by exponential curve fitting functions have smaller MAPD values and give better results in cash flow forecasting of investment investigated.Article Citation - WoS: 39Citation - Scopus: 41Economic Assessment of Geothermal District Heating Systems: a Case Study of Balçova-Narlıdere, Turkey(Elsevier Ltd., 2006) Erdoğmuş, Berkan; Toksoy, Macit; Özerdem, Barış; Aksoy, NiyaziGeothermal energy is an important renewable energy resource in Turkey. The aim of this research is to evaluate the Balcova-Narlidere geothermal district heating system from an economic perspective. The system is the largest one in Turkey in terms of heating capacity and located in Izmir. Although there are some assessments regarding energy and exergy analysis for the Balcova-Narlidere geothermal district heating system, an economic assessment was not performed, previously. The profitability of the investment is investigated by using internal rate of return method. Seven hundred and eighty different scenarios are developed in this assessment. In order to estimate the potential cash flows in the remaining project life, operating cost in 2002 is decreased and increased, alternatively, between 5% and 30% by 5% in each step, while monthly energy utilization price is changed between US$ 17 and 72 in those scenarios. The energy utilization prices are suggested according to zero IRR value for all scenarios due to the consideration of social and environmental concerns in this investment. It is found that, the proper monthly energy utilization price for a 100 m2 household would be US$ 55.5 when the operating cost and heating capacity in 2002 were remained constant.