Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148
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Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 9Analysis of Covid 19 Disease With Sir Model and Taylor Matrix Method(American Institute of Mathematical Sciences, 2022) Uçar, Deniz; Çelik, ElçinCovid 19 emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019 has continued to spread by affecting the whole world. The pandemic has affected over 328 million people with more than 5 million deaths in over 200 countries which has severely disrupted the healthcare system and halted economies of the countries. The aim of this study is to discuss the numerical solution of the SIR model on the spread of Covid 19 by the Taylor matrix and collocation method for Turkey. Predicting COVID-19 through appropriate models can help us to understand the potential spread in the population so that appropriate action can be taken to prevent further transmission and prepare health systems for medical management of the disease. We deal with Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model. One of the proposed model’s improvements is to reflect the societal feedback on the disease and confinement features. We obtain the time dependent rate of transmission of the disease from susceptible β(t) and the rate of recovery from infectious to recovered γ using Turkey epidemic data. We apply the Taylor matrix and collocation method to the SIR model with γ, β(t) and Covid 19 data of Turkey from the date of the first case March 11, 2020 through July 3, 2021. Using this method, we focus on the evolution of the Covid 19 in Turkey. We also show the estimates with the help of graphics and Maple.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 3Meta-Synthesis of Covid-19 Lessons: Charting Sustainable Management of Future Pandemics(Routledge, 2021) Ziafati Bafarasat, AbbasDevelopment of the COVID-19 vaccines has been creating a lot of hope for an ultimate return to normality, but returning to normality as we had before would mean we will continue to ignore life-ravaging lessons, as we did for severe acute respiratory syndrome, Ebola, and Middle East respiratory syndrome. This meta-synthesis of COVID-19 lessons charts sustainable pandemic management in terms of choosing strategies that are situated in their contextual specifications and beginning preparations for future application of such strategies from now. To guide selection of a situated strategy, the paper provides a comprehensive list of epidemiological determinants (e.g. communicativeness, poverty, supply chain, density, wind, remoteness); consolidates knowledge about strategies of elimination, suppression and mitigation; and proposes a quantified SWOT analysis of epidemiological determinants that produces coordinates for strategy identification in a Cartesian plane divided into twelve strategy quarters. To guide prior preparations for future application of pandemic management strategies, the paper consolidates lessons learned in implementation of situated strategies and proposes preparations at the national level for elimination, at the local/community level for suppression, and at the regional level for mitigation. Highlights: Lessons of COVID-19 (coronavirus) chart sustainable management of future pandemics. Epidemiological determinants and their mechanisms of impact are listed. Knowledge about elimination, suppression and mitigation strategies is consolidated. A quantified SWOT and Cartesian plane enable selecting context-specific strategies. Preparations for future elimination, suppression and mitigation are listed