Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148

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Subject: search.filters.subject.ForecastingWoS Q: search.filters.wosQuartile.Q2

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  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 8
    Citation - Scopus: 14
    An End-To Trainable Feature Selection-Forecasting Architecture Targeted at the Internet of Things
    (IEEE, 2021) Nakıp, Mert; Karakayalı, Kubilay; Güzeliş, Cüneyt; Rodoplu, Volkan
    We develop a novel end-to-end trainable feature selection-forecasting (FSF) architecture for predictive networks targeted at the Internet of Things (IoT). In contrast with the existing filter-based, wrapper-based and embedded feature selection methods, our architecture enables the automatic selection of features dynamically based on feature importance score calculation and gamma-gated feature selection units that are trained jointly and end-to-end with the forecaster. We compare the performance of our FSF architecture on the problem of forecasting IoT device traffic against the following existing (feature selection, forecasting) technique pairs: Autocorrelation Function (ACF), Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Recurrent Feature Elimination (RFE) and Ridge Regression methods for feature selection, and Linear Regression, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), 1 Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D CNN), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Logistic Regression for forecasting. We show that our FSF architecture achieves either the best or close to the best performance among all of the competing techniques by virtue of its dynamic, automatic feature selection capability. In addition, we demonstrate that both the training time and the execution time of FSF are reasonable for IoT applications. This work represents a milestone for the development of predictive networks for IoT in smart cities of the near future.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 46
    Citation - Scopus: 49
    Predicting and Forecasting Flow Discharge at Sites Receiving Significant Lateral Inflow
    (John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2007) Tayfur, Gökmen; Moramarco, Tommaso; Singh, Vijay P.
    Two models, one linear and one non-linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non-linear model is based on a multilayer feed-forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow-stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real-time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow-stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4-h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8-h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time.