Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148
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Article The Future of Urban Hierearchy and Zipf Law: Arima and Bats Forecasting(Springer Heidelberg, 2025) Duran, Hasan EnginZipf's Law is recognized as a power law which is used to identify the extent and the evolution of the urban hierarchies. The existing studies have mostly adopted a retrospective view by analysing the past patterns. However, we would like to shed a light onto the future trajectories. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the future of Urban Hierarchies and Zipf's Law for the U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and the period 1969-2070. Having applied, two forecasting methods; i."ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)", ii. "BATS (Exponential smoothing state space model Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components)" and the estimation of rank-size rule, we obtained crucial conclusions (Box and Jenkins in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1970; Box et al. in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Wiley, New Jersey, 2016; Kinney in Acc Rev 53:48-60, 1978; Hyndman et al. in R package version 8.24.0, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/forecast/forecast.pdf, 2025; De Livera in: Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework, Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University (Working Papers 10/10). https://www.monash.edu/business/econometrics-and-business%20statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp10-10.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in: Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing. (Working paper 15/09), Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University. https://robjhyndman.com/papers/ComplexSeasonality.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 106:1513-1527, 2011). We provide evidence that the Zipf's Law is observed not to hold over the last century and, if existing conditions hold, it is not expected to be valid in the next 50 years. Pareto exponent is found significantly below the Pareto level, historically, currently and prospectively.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4The Future of Regional Inequalities: an Arima Forecast(Springer Heidelberg, 2024) Duran, Hasan EnginThe existing stream of empirical literature on regional inequalities has always adopted a retrospective look by analyzing the past evolution. We depart from the main stream by adopting a future perspective: Will regional inequalities shrink over time? How will the shape of income distribution evolve? Will spatial dependency increase? In the current paper, we forecast the long-term trajectory of per capita real personal income for U.S. states using the ARIMA model. We estimate the future of disparity level (for 2050 and 2090), the shape and spatial pattern of income distribution, convergence trend and spatial dependence by the help of inequality indexes (Atkinson, Coefficient of Variation, Theil) Kernel probability density distributions, explorative maps and Moran's I test. The dataset includes 48 coterminous U.S. states over the period 1929-2022. A set of important results appeared to emerge as an outcome of the empirical analyses: First, income disparities are expected to increase over the long-term period that implies a divergence pattern. Second, the forecasted shape of the income distribution is bi-modal and polarized, therefore, pointing to a widening of the inequalities. Third, the geography of the prosperity is projected to change in a way that the geographical position of high and low-income areas will change. Fourth, spatial dependence in per capita income is expected to fade away in the future. From a political stand point, additional resources should be devoted to the states that are expected to become backward (for some states in Northeast and Southwest) in order to maintain territorial cohesion.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 4Region-Specific Turning Points in Territorial Economic Resilience: A Business Cycle Approach To Turkey(Routledge, 2024) Duran, H.E.; Elburz, Z.; Kourtit, K.; Nijkamp, P.Almost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009–20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession. © 2023 Regional Studies Association.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 4Region-Specific Turning Points in Territorial Economic Resilience: a Business Cycle Approach To Turkey(Routledge, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, PeterAlmost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009-20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 9The Distribution of City Sizes in Turkey: a Failure of Zipf's Law Due To Concavity(Wiley, 2021) Duran, Hasan Engin; Cieslik, AndrzejThe linearity of the distribution of city sizes is often assumed in the existing literature. Although different functional forms were tried, almost all of them impose a certain functional shape. In this study, we investigate the urban hierarchy and Zipf's law using data for 973 Turkish subprovincial cities in 2019. We contribute to the literature in several ways. We force no definite functional form to observe the natural shape and employ nonparametric and quadratic regressions. We incorporate formal procedures of spatial dependence in regression models. We demonstrate that the linear model overestimates the Pareto exponent for small cities and underestimates it for bigger cities. We show that city sizes are unevenly distributed in Turkey. The rank-size rule is not valid in Turkey, either above or below a certain city-size truncation level. Thus, the Pareto exponent estimated from the linear model is not a reliable indicator as quadratic regressions perform much better.Article Citation - WoS: 27Citation - Scopus: 28Lime Mortar Technology in Ancient Eastern Roman Provinces(Elsevier, 2021) Uğurlu Sağın, Elif; Duran, Hasan Engin; Böke, HasanNatural pozzolanic aggregates were discovered during the Roman era and have been widely used in hydraulic mortar production. Despite the claims of ancient treatises, the properties of pozzolans and the technology of hydraulic lime mortars were well known and applied in the eastern provinces of the Roman Empire. In this study, the characteristics of lime mortar at the ancient sites of Aigai and Nysa located in Western Anatolia were investigated to elicit the technology applied. The raw material compositions of the mortars, the hydraulic properties of the binders, and the mineralogical and chemical compositions of the natural pozzolans used were determined via X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive spectroscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis. The major and trace element compositions of the natural pozzolans were evaluated via multivariate statistical analysis to determine whether the same local raw material resources were used in their manufacture. The analytical results indicated that the Roman mortars were hydraulic, stiff, and durable materials due to the use of natural pozzolanic aggregates mostly comprising dacite. Although the aggregates had similar mineralogical compositions, multivariate statistical analysis revealed that their chemical compositions were clearly distinguishable, indicating the use of different sources of raw materials. Thus, it was inferred that similar pozzolan resources were known and deliberately used to produce hydraulic mortars in the eastern ancient Roman provinces.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 2User Lighting Preferences Based on Navigation and Space Quality in Virtual Exhibition Environments(Znack Publishing House, 2020) Çevik, Aslıhan; Kazanasmaz, Zehra Tuğçe; Duran, Hasan EnginJust as any other interior environment, lighting of exhibition spaces must be examined to enhance its visual quality and comfort. In this study, user behaviour, perception and impressions are analyzed for more comprehensive understanding by including subjective reasoning. Due to the chaotic progress and contradictory choices in exhibition lighting, daylight is mostly avoided while the role of users and relation between quantitative and qualitative parameters are often neglected. A series of sample exhibition spaces illuminated either artificially or by daylight are modelled virtually in Lumion software to be evaluated in a three-step questionnaire. A total of 90 participants are selected from three different professions (architects, visitors, artists), their reaction like movement, preference and impressions are gathered via questionnaire while moving through the model. The study aims to find out the role of lighting type in exhibition navigation and its relation with non-lighting parameters using statistical analysis methods. Results show that natural light is preferred more in sculpture exhibition while artificial light is preferred in painting exhibition. Movement towards daylight increases in transition areas and towards the end of the exhibition. A significant difference in navigation choices are found between professions, architects preferred to move towards more natural light while artists preferred artificial light.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 5Social Capital and Regional Development in Turkey(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2020) Arslan, Hüseyin Mert; Duran, Hasan EnginThis paper aims to improve the shortcomings of the empirical literature on regional social capital. The following three research questions are addressed: (i) do regional social capital and economic growth have an endoneous (circular) relationship as opposed to the exogenous one-way relationship assumed in the literature; (ii) What are the socio-economic and demographic determinants of cross-regional variation in social capital? And (iii) Are spatial spillovers relevant in the analysis of these questions? Empirically, we pursue the analysis for 81 Turkish provinces in 2015. Indeed, regional social capital in Turkey is far less studied than country-level social capital. The methodology adopted includes kernel density estimates, ordinary least squares, three stage least squares, and spatial error models. In terms of the obtained results, First, regional social capital is heterogenously distributed across regions. Second, social capital has no significant impact on economic growth but the growth induces the generation of social capital (in social norms). This represents a first result of reserve causality in the literature. Third, a typical province that has high social capital is the one with relatively high income, more even income distribution, low unemployment, big households and older age profile. Fourth, there is the evidence of spatial dependence that should be incorporated in empirical analyses.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Regional Inflation Persistence in Turkey(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2021) Duran, Hasan Engin; Dindaroğlu, BurakThe purpose of the current study is to investigate the degree of inflation persistence, its geographical variation, sources of cross-regional variation, and presence of geographical/sectoral aggregation bias in national monetary policy. Our data set covers 26 NUTS-2 level Turkish regions and monthly CPI inflation over the period 2003-2019. We first estimate the degree of regional inflation persistence by autoregressive regressions, check its robustness against the presence of structural breaks (by Bai-Perron's algorithm) and nonlinearities (by Markovian Regime Switching regressions). Second, we examine the possibility of geographical and sectoral aggregation bias. Third, we investigate the cross-regional determinants of inflation persistence by panel data analysis, employing hybrid-effects spatial panel regressions. We analyze the direct and indirect effects of the determinants and test for regional spillover effects. Three main results are obtained. First, estimated persistence degrees are heterogeneous across regions. The geographical pattern is empirically robust against structural breaks and nonlinearities. We find that inflation persistence is distributed in a spatially correlated manner. Second, when sectoral and regional aggregation bias is tested, only sectoral aggregation indicates a considerable level of bias. Third, we find that the presence of large firms in the region and a higher share of agricultural output in GDP leads to lower persistence, while an increased share of industrial output, and increased trade volume leads to higher inflation persistence. Moreover, we find spatial spillovers of price variability evident in regression analysis. From a policy standpoint, it is required that structural policy programs are targeted to maintain flexibility in the regions where persistence is high (i.e., providing market entry/exit, institutional quality, policy credibility, stimulation of SMEs). Moreover, sectors that have high persistence, such as Hotels and Restaurants (persistence degree 0.55) and Health Services (0.39) should be weighted more in CPI calculations.Book Part Citation - Scopus: 1Youth Unemployment: Macroeconomic Causes, Consequences and Determinants(Peter Lang AG, 2017) Duran, Hasan Engin[No abstract available]