Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148
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Article Citation - WoS: 46Citation - Scopus: 49Predicting and Forecasting Flow Discharge at Sites Receiving Significant Lateral Inflow(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2007) Tayfur, Gökmen; Moramarco, Tommaso; Singh, Vijay P.Two models, one linear and one non-linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non-linear model is based on a multilayer feed-forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow-stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real-time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow-stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4-h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8-h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 22Forecasting Ambient Air So2 Concentrations Using Artificial Neural Networks(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2006) Sofuoğlu, Sait Cemil; Sofuoğlu, Aysun; Birgili, Savaş; Tayfur, GökmenAn Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) model is constructed to forecast SO 2 concentrations in Izmir air. The model uses meteorological variables (wind speed and temperature) and measured particulate matter concentrations as input variables. The correlation coefficient between observed and forecasted concentrations is 0.94 for the network that uses all three variables as input parameters. The root mean square error value of the model is 3.60 g/mt 3 . Considering the limited number of available input variables, model performances show that ANNs are a promising method of modeling to forecast ambient air SO 2 concentrations in Izmir.