Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collection

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7148

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  • Article
    In-Depth Analysis of Drought Trend in Semiarid Saïs Plateau and Middle Atlas Region in Morocco
    (Springer int Publ Ag, 2025) Qadem, Zohair; Tayfur, Gokmen; Kankal, Murat
    This study explores the spatiotemporal properties of droughts and their evolution in the semiarid Sa & iuml;s Plateau and the Middle Atlas regions in Morocco. The methodology includes the analysis of 36 years of precipitation data recorded at 16 meteorological stations, the use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at different temporal scales of short term (1 and 3 months), medium term (6 months), and long term (12 and 24 months) to capture historical droughts, and the application of the Mann-Kendall test to assess the drought trends. The wet and dry periods in the Sa & iuml;s Plateau and Middle Atlas regions are almost evenly distributed, with 65% in the "near-normal" condition. The "extremely dry" period, with a value of 1%, was lower than the "extremely humid" period (1.65%). There is no topographically and climatically significant difference between the Sa & iuml;s Plateau and the Middle Atlas in terms of droughts, which are found to decrease over time in both regions. The results of Mann-Kendall test reveal that the short-term trends are generally positive, except at the Boulemane station (- 0.06 for SPI-1, - 0.13 for SPI-3). The long-term precipitation increases in the Middle Atlas region, particularly at the Ait Khabach (0.33 for SPI-24) and the Imouzzer (0.36 for SPI-24) stations. On the Sa & iuml;s Plateau, the trends are positive at the stations of Fez City (0.16 for SPI-24) and Dar Elarsa (0.27 for SPI-24). Significant trends are more pronounced at longer time scales.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 16
    Citation - Scopus: 19
    Meteorological Drought Assessment and Trend Analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia
    (MDPI, 2023) Muse, Nur Mohamed; Tayfur, Gökmen; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh
    Drought assessment and trend analysis of precipitation and temperature time series are essential in the planning and management of water resources. Long-term precipitation and temperature historical records (monthly for 41 years, from 1980 to 2020) are used to investigate annual drought characteristics and trend analysis in Somalia's northern region. Six drought indices of the normal Standardized Precipitation Index (normal-SPI), the log normal Standardized Precipitation Index (log-SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Index using the gamma distribution (Gamma-SPI), the Percent of Normal Index (PNI), the Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI), and the Deciles Index (DI) are used in this study for the annual drought assessment. The log-SPI, the gamma-SPI, the PNI, and the DPI could capture historical extreme and severe droughts that occurred in the early 1980s and over the last two decades. The results indicate that Somalia has gone through extended drought periods over the past quarter century, exacerbating the existing humanitarian situation. The normal-SPI, gamma-SPI, and PNI indicate less and moderate drought conditions, whereas log-SPI, DPI, and DI accurately capture historical extreme and severe drought periods; thus, these methods are recommended as annual drought assessment tools in the studied region. Not only are the PNI and DPI less correlated to each other, but their correlation coefficient (CC) with SPI-based drought indices are not as high as SPI-based indices which are close to unity. For the purpose of the trend analysis, the Mann Kendall (MK) test, the Spearman's rho (SR) test, and the Sen test are used. Furthermore, the Pettitt test is implemented to detect the change points and the Thiel-Sen approach is used to estimate the magnitude of trend in the precipitation and temperature time series. The results indicate that there is overall warming in the region which has experienced a significant shift in trend direction since 2000. The trend analysis of annual precipitation data time series shows that Bossaso and Garowe stations have significant positive trends, while the Qardho station has no trend. In 1997 and 1998, respectively, abrupt changes in annual precipitation are detected at Qardho and Garowe stations. Due to the civil war of more than three decades in Somalia and the non-institutionalized governance to inform historical drought conditions in the country, determining the most appropriate meteorological drought index would help to develop a drought monitoring system for states and the entire country.