Master Degree / Yüksek Lisans Tezleri

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Author: search.filters.author.Duran, Hasan EnginSubject: search.filters.subject.Housing prices

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  • Master Thesis
    Determinants of Regional Housing Prices in Turkey
    (Izmir Institute of Technology, 2017) Özdoğan, Hilal; Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of Technology
    In the literature on regional housing prices, two main groups of determinants are primarily put forward; speculative and fundamental variables. Empirical literature in this field has several shortcomings. First, although existing studies have analyzed the role played by speculative factors, none of the studies, have measured precisely the relative importance of speculative and fundamental variables. We aim at doing this. Moreover, the literature has measured the speculation only by analyzing backwardlooking behavior. We improve this analysis by considering also forward-looking expectations. Second, in terms of cross-regional determinants, literature has largely considered economic and demographic variables whereas; geographic, urbanization and cultural variables have been ignored. We intend to incorporate them. Hence, aim of this paper is to understand the dynamics behind the housing prices in 26 Turkish regions between 2010:1-2016:9. We employ range of econometric methods such as Vector- Autoregressions, Unit Root Analysis, Cholesky Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, Impulse-Response Functions, Panel Regressions, Lagrange Multiplier Spatial Dependence Tests and Granger Causality Tests. As an outcome, three results emerge. First, housing price appreciations are so heterogeneous across regions. Second, role of speculative behavior is quite significant. Third, regions which have high urbanization, population, crime rate, trade openness, vehicle ratio, seaside and cultural activity ratios experience faster housing appreciations.