Master Degree / Yüksek Lisans Tezleri

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/3008

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Author: search.filters.author.Kale, SerdarPublisher: search.filters.publisher.01. Izmir Institute of Technology

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Master Thesis
    An Analysis of the Impact of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (erpt) To Construction Cost Index and Housing Unit Prices in Turkey
    (01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Lağap, Umut; Kale, Serdar
    After the high-speed globalization attack, the interrelations between countries have increased significantly, and local economies have become vulnerable to global economic developments. Despite the successful monetary policies in the 2000s, the Turkish Lira has severely depreciated against foreign currencies in the last decade. Thus, the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices and its relationship with other macroeconomic variables has become a hot topic for governments and scholars in the literature. However, this pass-through effect on the Turkish Construction Industry and the Housing Market is minimal, although they play a pivotal role in the Turkish economy. With Vector Autoregression (VAR) models analyzing the collected monthly data between 2010 and 2020, this study reveals (1) the ERPT to housing unit prices in Turkey (hup1) and Istanbul (hup2), (2) the change in this pass-through effect during economic stabilization, and fluctuation in the Turkish economy. Moreover, this thesis uncovers (3) the ERPT to Construction Cost Index (cci1) and its material component (cci2) between 2015 and 2020. As a result of Variance Decomposition (VD) and Impulse Response Function (IRF), the housing mortgage rate's (hmr) effect on hup2 is much more significant than its effect on hup1 in the first two years. However, there is no significant difference between the nominal exchange rate's (exr) effects on these prices in the same period. Besides, the effects of hmr and exr diminished during economic stabilization. Moreover, the ERPT to cci1 is greater than the ERPT to cci2 at the end of the first year.
  • Master Thesis
    Global Diffusion of Green Building Certification Systems (gbcs): a Lead and Lag Markets Model
    (01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Kaya, Yusuf Furkan; Kale, Serdar
    Global crises in our planet's sustainability emerged in recent history. Hence, the construction industry, which has the largest share in this situation, have witnessed the accelerated proliferation in the number of Green Building Certification (GBC) systems (such as LEED, BREEAM and Green Star) in the last two decades. GBC systems have received massive attentiveness from academics from numerous disciplines as a reasonable response to its accelerated proliferation. The general concepts described in preceding research endeavours on GBC systems comprise (1) evaluation benchmarks used in rating and weighting, (2) incentives and handicaps for acquiring a GBC system, (3) efficacy of a GBC system, (4) comparison of numerous GBC systems, and (5) systematic reviews of the research and studies. The research presented herein pays particular attention to a relatively disregarded research area on GBC systems: global diffusion behaviours. It conceptualises a GBC system as a product rating service provided in certain nations and employs the Mixed Influence Model to investigate this certification service's cross-national diffusion behaviours. Initially, this model was used to investigate population growth. Thereafter, its application has been widened to explore the diffusion of industrial systems such as goods, services, and innovations. The Mixed Influence model was constructed incorporating data from one of the oldest GBC systems, LEED. The results of the Mixed Influence model reveal the cross-national diffusion behaviours of the GBC systems.
  • Master Thesis
    A Statistical Cash Flow Model for Developing Pricing Strategy in the Construction Industry
    (01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Söker, Ali İkram; Kale, Serdar
    This thesis presents a cash flow model to identify the risks and develop a strategy including pricing for build-and-sell real-estate development projects, in which a flat-for-land agreement is made. Discrete Event Simulation method is used for the uncertain variables and MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool is used to transform expert judgments to probability distributions for variables. The model aims to simplify the complex uncertainties in land acquisition, construction, and selling of the constructed properties and estimate a cash flow to evaluate the risk for profit and negative cash balance during the project. The construction cost, property sales times and prices, advance and monthly payments for each sale are simulated to estimate the cash flow. A real-life case study data was simulated to observe results and test the model. Results of the case study have shown that the risk of loss at the end of the project increases when Net Present Value is calculated as well as the profit decreases because the cash-out flow tends to be more at the early stages of construction while cash-in flow tends to be more near the end. Furthermore, the failure risk of the project was so high because of the months with negative cash balance which is with 77.6 % probability and at a range between 11 to 15 months. Finally, actions such as increasing or decreasing property prices, working capital, loan amount and loan duration to improve the project's performance are discussed together with their impact on profitability while avoiding negative cash balance.