Master Degree / Yüksek Lisans Tezleri
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/3008
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Master Thesis An Analysis of the Impact of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (erpt) To Construction Cost Index and Housing Unit Prices in Turkey(01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Lağap, Umut; Kale, SerdarAfter the high-speed globalization attack, the interrelations between countries have increased significantly, and local economies have become vulnerable to global economic developments. Despite the successful monetary policies in the 2000s, the Turkish Lira has severely depreciated against foreign currencies in the last decade. Thus, the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices and its relationship with other macroeconomic variables has become a hot topic for governments and scholars in the literature. However, this pass-through effect on the Turkish Construction Industry and the Housing Market is minimal, although they play a pivotal role in the Turkish economy. With Vector Autoregression (VAR) models analyzing the collected monthly data between 2010 and 2020, this study reveals (1) the ERPT to housing unit prices in Turkey (hup1) and Istanbul (hup2), (2) the change in this pass-through effect during economic stabilization, and fluctuation in the Turkish economy. Moreover, this thesis uncovers (3) the ERPT to Construction Cost Index (cci1) and its material component (cci2) between 2015 and 2020. As a result of Variance Decomposition (VD) and Impulse Response Function (IRF), the housing mortgage rate's (hmr) effect on hup2 is much more significant than its effect on hup1 in the first two years. However, there is no significant difference between the nominal exchange rate's (exr) effects on these prices in the same period. Besides, the effects of hmr and exr diminished during economic stabilization. Moreover, the ERPT to cci1 is greater than the ERPT to cci2 at the end of the first year.Master Thesis Global Diffusion of Green Building Certification Systems (gbcs): a Lead and Lag Markets Model(01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Kaya, Yusuf Furkan; Kale, SerdarGlobal crises in our planet's sustainability emerged in recent history. Hence, the construction industry, which has the largest share in this situation, have witnessed the accelerated proliferation in the number of Green Building Certification (GBC) systems (such as LEED, BREEAM and Green Star) in the last two decades. GBC systems have received massive attentiveness from academics from numerous disciplines as a reasonable response to its accelerated proliferation. The general concepts described in preceding research endeavours on GBC systems comprise (1) evaluation benchmarks used in rating and weighting, (2) incentives and handicaps for acquiring a GBC system, (3) efficacy of a GBC system, (4) comparison of numerous GBC systems, and (5) systematic reviews of the research and studies. The research presented herein pays particular attention to a relatively disregarded research area on GBC systems: global diffusion behaviours. It conceptualises a GBC system as a product rating service provided in certain nations and employs the Mixed Influence Model to investigate this certification service's cross-national diffusion behaviours. Initially, this model was used to investigate population growth. Thereafter, its application has been widened to explore the diffusion of industrial systems such as goods, services, and innovations. The Mixed Influence model was constructed incorporating data from one of the oldest GBC systems, LEED. The results of the Mixed Influence model reveal the cross-national diffusion behaviours of the GBC systems.Master Thesis A Statistical Cash Flow Model for Developing Pricing Strategy in the Construction Industry(01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Söker, Ali İkram; Kale, SerdarThis thesis presents a cash flow model to identify the risks and develop a strategy including pricing for build-and-sell real-estate development projects, in which a flat-for-land agreement is made. Discrete Event Simulation method is used for the uncertain variables and MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool is used to transform expert judgments to probability distributions for variables. The model aims to simplify the complex uncertainties in land acquisition, construction, and selling of the constructed properties and estimate a cash flow to evaluate the risk for profit and negative cash balance during the project. The construction cost, property sales times and prices, advance and monthly payments for each sale are simulated to estimate the cash flow. A real-life case study data was simulated to observe results and test the model. Results of the case study have shown that the risk of loss at the end of the project increases when Net Present Value is calculated as well as the profit decreases because the cash-out flow tends to be more at the early stages of construction while cash-in flow tends to be more near the end. Furthermore, the failure risk of the project was so high because of the months with negative cash balance which is with 77.6 % probability and at a range between 11 to 15 months. Finally, actions such as increasing or decreasing property prices, working capital, loan amount and loan duration to improve the project's performance are discussed together with their impact on profitability while avoiding negative cash balance.Master Thesis A Grey Verhulst Model for forecasting construction costs(Izmir Institute of Technology, 2020) Erinç, Uğurkan; Kale, SerdarForecasting costs in construction projects has an important place in whole processes. It is very important to observe possible changes in the construction process, especially in large scale projects. Using a series of data in a functional way can be useful to make the changes that can be made at a later time in that field. Grey models have an important place in the time series forecasting model. In line with this case, there are a number of methods developed over time. In fact, when these models are examined, it is seen that they follow and complement each other in the developmental stages, but the levels of development differ with some important decompositions. The ability to model and forecast construction costs can result in more accurate cost forecasting and budgeting. This has been modeled using a residual Fourier model by analyzing the remains of the Grey Verhulst Model, conditional variability of construction cost prices. The results show that the developed model can forecast construction costs with less errors. It was observed that the deviation rate in the final values decreased up to 0.97%. The data used in the time series analysis were observed for a relatively long time. These data are calculated with the assumption that the system will be developed in the future and the forecasted values will be maintained in the future based on these time series data.Master Thesis A Critical Analysis of Project Cost Estimation Models in Construction Management Literature(Izmir Institute of Technology, 2020) Özkan, Selen; Kale, SerdarStudies in recent years have shown that the majority of published studies cannot be reproduced. Failure to reproduce the researchs lead to a crisis in the reliability of the study results. The importance and benefits of reproducible research results have been well understood in a number academic fields such as psychology and biomedicine and in turn several steps have been taken to ensure the adequate data sharing in order to reproduce the studies. . The thesis presented herein explores the concept of reproducibility in the context of construction management literature in particular construction cost estimation research. A sample of 227 articles published in project management and construction management journals was analyzed. The research findings reveal that only 3.69% of articles can be reproduced and reproducibility is a major issue in construction management literature. The primary reasons those the reproducibility of the studies difficult include missing data, presentation method, inability to read the graphics and tables, incomplete reporting and explanation errors. It appears that the reliability crisis which has widely acknowledge in a number research fields is also major in the construction management literature.Master Thesis A Bibliometric Analysis of Critical Construction Management Studies(Izmir Institute of Technology, 2019) Deniz, Berna Derya; Kale, SerdarCopernicus's revolution is a philosophical change that questions the existence of humanity in the universe, as opposed to the belief; he claims that the Sun is the center of the universe, not the Earth. Rather than questioning a different perspective, believing in a dogmatic knowledge is a simple way to escape. Critical Management Studies (CMS), like Copernicus's revolution, has an ambitious goal on management theory and practice. CMS offers a number of alternatives to the current system by expressing more than critical thinking. It focuses on the impacts of management on the traditional labor force and production factors and it focuses on organizing the differences between theory and practice. The aim of the research presented in this thesis is to explore the evolution of CMS and its diffusion in project management studies and construction management studies. Bibliometric analysis is chosen as the research method, in the citation networks that emerged using the VOSviewer program, 11 most cited articles from the 283 center documents underlie the basis of the study. In the study, the citation relations of the articles are examined in terms of author, document, country, and keyword. The results of the research indicate that (1) CMS is still in the process of embryotic stage of its development, (2) the diffusion of CMS in project management studies and construction management literature have been limited and (3) the calls for pluralistic approach in construction management studies have not been addressed in literature.Master Thesis Corporate Social Responsibility in the Construction Industry(Izmir Institute of Technology, 2019) Doğan, Ceren; Kale, SerdarThe concept of “Corporate Social Responsibility” is one of the most discussed and debated issues in literature. It argues that firms should behave responsibly to the environment, society, and all stakeholders. Construction firms have been relatively slow, compared to firms operating in other industries, in adopting “Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)” practices. Yet it is a topical managerial issue for construction firms. The main objective of the research present in this thesis is to explore the concept of Corporate Social Responsibility practices in the context of construction industry. The sample used in this thesis is composed of 205 construction firms listed in ENR‟s 2018 Top 250 International Contractors. CSR discourses of construction firms are explored by using content analysis of CSR reports, financial reports, corporate web pages and other web sources. The research findings suggest that CSR practices/discourses used in the construction industry can be categorized into nine major groups. The most common CSR practices/discourses used in construction industry focuses on customer issues, environmental issues and labour issues. Research results also highlight that nationality of the firms, continent in which construction firms located and the ranking of construction firms in ENR list have significant impact on the use of CSR practices/discourse.Master Thesis A Cash Flow at Risk (cfar) Model for Managing Payment Delays in Construction Projects(Izmir Institute of Technology, 2019) Demirkapı, Hande Betül; Kale, SerdarCash flow management is a vital process for the efficient and effective management of operations and activities in construction firms. Researchers have been involved in developing the cash flow management models for the use of construction firms. The research presented in this thesis address this vital process - cash flow management in construction firms. It proposes a two-step a stochastic cash flow simulation model to manage interim and final payment delays in construction projects. The first step of the proposed model is pattern identification process - identifying the payment patterns of the owner. The second step is financial risk evaluation process based on Cash flow at Risk (CaFR). Three construction projects are used to illustrate the implementation and utility of the proposed stochastic cash flow model. The results of the proposed stochastic simulation model suggest that payment delays in construction projects is common and payment delays not only increase the operating capital requirements of construction firms but also bring significant financial burden to the construction firms. The proposed model enables construction business executives/practitioner to evaluate the financial risks due to the payment delays.Master Thesis Process Capability Analysis (pca) of Tender Evaluation Process in Public Agencies(Izmir Institute of Technology, 2019) Keskin, Pınar; Kale, SerdarPublic is the largest client in many countries. Public agencies acquire good, service and constructed facilities through the procurement. Most of the public procurements are completed later than the estimated times or even canceled due to the various reasons. Public procurement processes can be improved by using statistical or non-statistical process improvement methods. A review of the construction management literature reveals that process improvement methods are commonly focused on construction operations. Various process improvements have been proposed to improve effectiveness and efficiency of construction operations. Yet improving the tender evaluation process of construction projects is an unexplored research area in the construction management literature. The objective of this study is to analyze the tender evaluation process of public agencies and measure and in turn evaluate the adequacy of this process by using the process improvement methods. The study presented in thesis is based on two process improvement methodologies: (1) Define-Measure-Analyze- Improve-Control (DMAIC) and Process Capability Analysis (PCA). Public procurement processes performed by public agencies (i.e., state universities) are investigated. Tender evaluation processes of public agencies are studied based on criteria: (1) number of participants and (2) estimated construction cost. The research findings reveals that (1) the most time-consuming stage in the tendering process is the tender evaluation stage, (2) the tenders having higher estimated construction cost and more participants have longer tender duration and (3) the process capabilities of public agencies based on number of tenderers and estimated construction cost appear to be poor. The poor capability indices of public agencies suggest that immediate managerial actions should be taken to improve tender evaluation process in public agencies.