Civil Engineering / İnşaat Mühendisliği

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/13

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Access Right: Open AccessAuthor: search.filters.author.Barbetta, Silvia

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  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 54
    Citation - Scopus: 65
    Flood Hydrograph Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods
    (MDPI Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2018) Tayfur, Gökmen; Singh, Vijay P.; Moramarco, Tommaso; Barbetta, Silvia
    Machine learning (soft) methods have a wide range of applications in many disciplines, including hydrology. The first application of these methods in hydrology started in the 1990s and have since been extensively employed. Flood hydrograph prediction is important in hydrology and is generally done using linear or nonlinear Muskingum (NLM) methods or the numerical solutions of St. Venant (SV) flow equations or their simplified forms. However, soft computing methods are also utilized. This study discusses the application of the artificial neural network (ANN), the genetic algorithm (GA), the ant colony optimization (ACO), and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) methods for flood hydrograph predictions. Flow field data recorded on an equipped reach of Tiber River, central Italy, are used for training the ANN and to find the optimal values of the parameters of the rating curve method (RCM) by the GA, ACO, and PSO methods. Real hydrographs are satisfactorily predicted by the methods with an error in peak discharge and time to peak not exceeding, on average, 4% and 1%, respectively. In addition, the parameters of the Nonlinear Muskingum Model (NMM) are optimized by the same methods for flood routing in an artificial channel. Flood hydrographs generated by the NMM are compared against those obtained by the numerical solutions of the St. Venant equations. Results reveal that the machine learning models (ANN, GA, ACO, and PSO) are powerful tools and can be gainfully employed for flood hydrograph prediction. They use less and easily measurable data and have no significant parameter estimation problem.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 15
    Citation - Scopus: 17
    Genetic Algorithm-Based Discharge Estimation at Sites Receiving Lateral Inflows
    (American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2009) Tayfur, Gökmen; Barbetta, Silvia; Moramarco, Tommaso
    The genetic algorithm (GA) technique is applied to obtain optimal parameter values of the standard rating curve model (RCM) for predicting, in real time, event-based flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflows. The standard RCM uses the information of discharge and effective cross-sectional flow area at an upstream station and effective cross-sectional flow area wave travel time later at a downstream station to predict the flow rate at this last site. The GA technique obtains the optimal parameter values of the model, here defined as the GA-RCM model, by minimizing the mean absolute error objective function. The GA-RCM model was tested to predict hydrographs at three different stations, located on the Upper Tiber River in central Italy. The wave travel times characterizing the three selected river branches are, on the average, 4, 8, and 12h. For each river reach, seven events were employed, four for the model parameters' calibration and three for model testing. The GA approach, employing 100 chromosomes in the initial gene pool, 75% crossover rate, 5% mutation rate, and 10,000 iterations, made the GA-RCM model successfully simulate the hydrographs observed at each downstream section closely capturing the trend, time to peak, and peak rates with, on the average, less than 5% error. The model performance was also tested against the standard RCM model, which uses, on the contrary to the GA-RCM model, different values for the model parameters and wave travel time for each event, thus, making the application of the standard RCM for real time discharge monitoring inhibited. The comparative results revealed that the RCM model improved its performance by using the GA technique in estimating parameters. The sensitivity analysis results revealed that at most two events would be sufficient for the GA-RCM model to obtain the optimal values of the model parameters. A lower peak hydrograph can also be employed in the calibration to predict a higher peak hydrograph. Similarly, a shorter travel time hydrograph can be used in GA to obtain optimal model parameters that can be used to simulate floods characterized by longer travel time. For its characteristics, the GA-RCM model is suitable for the monitoring of discharge in real time, at river sites where only water levels are observed.