Civil Engineering / İnşaat Mühendisliği
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/13
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Article Citation - WoS: 46Citation - Scopus: 49Predicting and Forecasting Flow Discharge at Sites Receiving Significant Lateral Inflow(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2007) Tayfur, Gökmen; Moramarco, Tommaso; Singh, Vijay P.Two models, one linear and one non-linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non-linear model is based on a multilayer feed-forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow-stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real-time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow-stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4-h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8-h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time.Article Citation - WoS: 68Citation - Scopus: 86Fuzzy Logic Algorithm for Runoff-Induced Sediment Transport From Bare Soil Surfaces(Elsevier Ltd., 2003) Tayfur, Gökmen; Özdemir, Serhan; Singh, Vijay P.Utilizing the rainfall intensity, and slope data, a fuzzy logic algorithm was developed to estimate sediment loads from bare soil surfaces. Considering slope and rainfall as input variables, the variables were fuzzified into fuzzy subsets. The fuzzy subsets of the variables were considered to have triangular membership functions. The relations among rainfall intensity, slope, and sediment transport were represented by a set of fuzzy rules. The fuzzy rules relating input variables to the output variable of sediment discharge were laid out in the IF-THEN format. The commonly used weighted average method was employed for the defuzzification procedure. The sediment load predicted by the fuzzy model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured sediment load data. Predicting the mean sediment loads from experimental runs, the performance of the fuzzy model was compared with that of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and the physics-based models. The results of showed revealed that the fuzzy model performed better under very high rainfall intensities over different slopes and over very steep slopes under different rainfall intensities. This is closely related to the selection of the shape and frequency of the fuzzy membership functions in the fuzzy model.
