WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150
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Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1State-Level Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy Stress(Instytut Badan Gospodarczych/Institute of Economic Research (Poland), 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; Gajewski, Pawel; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyResearch background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed's) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 12Economic Resilience and Regionally Differentiated Cycles: Evidence From a Turning Point Approach in Italy(Wiley, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, Ugo; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyThe literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region-specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well-known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 4Region-Specific Turning Points in Territorial Economic Resilience: a Business Cycle Approach To Turkey(Routledge, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Elburz, Zeynep; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyAlmost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009-20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 13Heterogenous Responses To Monetary Policy Regimes: a Regional Analysis for Turkey, 2009-2019(Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; Karahasan, Burhan Can; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyThe heterogeneous response of regions to interest rate shocks is a severe issue that reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. While the impact of interest rate shocks is central on policymaking, less has been discussed about the spatial heterogeneity in influencing macroeconomic policy implementations. In order to fill this gap, the authors explore regional responses to monetary policy in developing countries, such as Turkey. The main aim of the paper is to investigate how different regions adjust the extent of real economic activity in response to an exogenous country-wide shock in the interest rate policy. The analyses cover 81 Turkish provinces using monthly data from January 2009 to November 2019. To consider temporal and spatial patterns in the same framework, time-series analyses via unit root, co-integration, and VAR with spatial methods have been combined, including exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric models. Preliminary findings validate that regional economic activity measured by employment responses is heterogeneous across provinces and policy regimes. Among the different determinants in assessing responsiveness to monetary policy shocks, interest rate, broad credit channels, and certain regional demographics have explanatory power. Moreover, sizeable spatial spillovers have been detected, which are believed to be crucial in evaluating the externalities and the exact impact of the country-wide policy shock in Turkey. Combined results indicate that the macroeconomic policy impact and spatial externalities are visible only during monetary expansion periods.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 8Validity of Okun’s Law in a Spatially Dependent and Cyclical Asymmetric Context(Savez Ekonomista Vojvodine, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyThe current article analyzes the validity of Okun’s Law and sizable distortions that can occur in the estimation when spatial dependence and cyclical asymmetric impacts are not considered, which is a concern commonly ignored by the existing literature. Primarily spatial panel regressions (SDM, SAR, and SEM) and nonparametric regressions along with specification tests are adopted in terms of the methodology (such as panel unit root tests, panel cointegration, Moran’s I and Geary’s C tests of global spatial dependence, spatial LM, and Hausman tests). Additionally, spatial heterogeneity and cross-regional variation in Okun’s Law are investigated by adopting geographically weighted regression, LISA (local indicators for spatial association), and local Geary’s C analysis. A panel of 26 Turkish NUTS-2 regions from 2004 to 2018 was analyzed. The results clearly revealed that failing to incorporate spatial proximity and asymmetric cycle impacts leads to the biased estimation of Okun’s coefficient, such that during the downswing years of the national economy, Okun’s Law holds robustly: unemployment increases quickly in response to a decline in output. In contrast, during upswing years, the size of Okun’s coefficient is relatively much lower. Moreover, spatial dependence and heterogeneity are sizably evident. Okun’s coefficient is demonstrated to vary significantly across regions that have different industrial and labor market characteristics. As a policy implication, it has been understood that the reduction of unemployment is more difficult than initially understood, as economic growth itself does not provide a solution during upswing periods. The necessary special and region-specific policies are discussed throughout the text.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5The Revival of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Moderation of Capital Flows After the Global Financial Crisis(Elsevier, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyThis study investigates the recent trend of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and the underlying reasons for moderation in capital flows. This issue is analysed quite inadequately for the period after the Global Financial Crisis, which represents a crucial turning point for economic climate and policies. The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle is estimated using the World's 13 largest economies, with panel GMM regression, between 1996 and 2016. We uncover that the Global Financial Crisis had a persistent detrimental effect on capital liberalization, after which the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle has revived and capital mobility has decreased. We suggest two possible explanations for such moderation in capital flows: the increasing risk perception and risk aversion behaviour of fund supplying countries, which increases the home bias, and capital controls against free flow of capital that have been applied after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 9The Distribution of City Sizes in Turkey: a Failure of Zipf's Law Due To Concavity(Wiley, 2021) Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyThe linearity of the distribution of city sizes is often assumed in the existing literature. Although different functional forms were tried, almost all of them impose a certain functional shape. In this study, we investigate the urban hierarchy and Zipf's law using data for 973 Turkish subprovincial cities in 2019. We contribute to the literature in several ways. We force no definite functional form to observe the natural shape and employ nonparametric and quadratic regressions. We incorporate formal procedures of spatial dependence in regression models. We demonstrate that the linear model overestimates the Pareto exponent for small cities and underestimates it for bigger cities. We show that city sizes are unevenly distributed in Turkey. The rank-size rule is not valid in Turkey, either above or below a certain city-size truncation level. Thus, the Pareto exponent estimated from the linear model is not a reliable indicator as quadratic regressions perform much better.Article Citation - WoS: 27Citation - Scopus: 28Lime Mortar Technology in Ancient Eastern Roman Provinces(Elsevier, 2021) Uğurlu Sağın, Elif; Duran, Hasan Engin; Duran, Hasan Engin; Böke, Hasan; Böke, Hasan; Uğurlu Sağın, Elif; 02.01. Department of Conservation and Restoration of Cultural Heritage; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyNatural pozzolanic aggregates were discovered during the Roman era and have been widely used in hydraulic mortar production. Despite the claims of ancient treatises, the properties of pozzolans and the technology of hydraulic lime mortars were well known and applied in the eastern provinces of the Roman Empire. In this study, the characteristics of lime mortar at the ancient sites of Aigai and Nysa located in Western Anatolia were investigated to elicit the technology applied. The raw material compositions of the mortars, the hydraulic properties of the binders, and the mineralogical and chemical compositions of the natural pozzolans used were determined via X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy dispersive spectroscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis. The major and trace element compositions of the natural pozzolans were evaluated via multivariate statistical analysis to determine whether the same local raw material resources were used in their manufacture. The analytical results indicated that the Roman mortars were hydraulic, stiff, and durable materials due to the use of natural pozzolanic aggregates mostly comprising dacite. Although the aggregates had similar mineralogical compositions, multivariate statistical analysis revealed that their chemical compositions were clearly distinguishable, indicating the use of different sources of raw materials. Thus, it was inferred that similar pozzolan resources were known and deliberately used to produce hydraulic mortars in the eastern ancient Roman provinces.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 2User Lighting Preferences Based on Navigation and Space Quality in Virtual Exhibition Environments(Znack Publishing House, 2020) Çevik, Aslıhan; Duran, Hasan Engin; Kazanasmaz, Zehra Tuğçe; Kazanasmaz, Zehra Tuğçe; Duran, Hasan Engin; 02.02. Department of Architecture; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyJust as any other interior environment, lighting of exhibition spaces must be examined to enhance its visual quality and comfort. In this study, user behaviour, perception and impressions are analyzed for more comprehensive understanding by including subjective reasoning. Due to the chaotic progress and contradictory choices in exhibition lighting, daylight is mostly avoided while the role of users and relation between quantitative and qualitative parameters are often neglected. A series of sample exhibition spaces illuminated either artificially or by daylight are modelled virtually in Lumion software to be evaluated in a three-step questionnaire. A total of 90 participants are selected from three different professions (architects, visitors, artists), their reaction like movement, preference and impressions are gathered via questionnaire while moving through the model. The study aims to find out the role of lighting type in exhibition navigation and its relation with non-lighting parameters using statistical analysis methods. Results show that natural light is preferred more in sculpture exhibition while artificial light is preferred in painting exhibition. Movement towards daylight increases in transition areas and towards the end of the exhibition. A significant difference in navigation choices are found between professions, architects preferred to move towards more natural light while artists preferred artificial light.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 5Social Capital and Regional Development in Turkey(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2020) Arslan, Hüseyin Mert; Duran, Hasan Engin; 02.03. Department of City and Regional Planning; 02. Faculty of Architecture; 01. Izmir Institute of TechnologyThis paper aims to improve the shortcomings of the empirical literature on regional social capital. The following three research questions are addressed: (i) do regional social capital and economic growth have an endoneous (circular) relationship as opposed to the exogenous one-way relationship assumed in the literature; (ii) What are the socio-economic and demographic determinants of cross-regional variation in social capital? And (iii) Are spatial spillovers relevant in the analysis of these questions? Empirically, we pursue the analysis for 81 Turkish provinces in 2015. Indeed, regional social capital in Turkey is far less studied than country-level social capital. The methodology adopted includes kernel density estimates, ordinary least squares, three stage least squares, and spatial error models. In terms of the obtained results, First, regional social capital is heterogenously distributed across regions. Second, social capital has no significant impact on economic growth but the growth induces the generation of social capital (in social norms). This represents a first result of reserve causality in the literature. Third, a typical province that has high social capital is the one with relatively high income, more even income distribution, low unemployment, big households and older age profile. Fourth, there is the evidence of spatial dependence that should be incorporated in empirical analyses.