WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150

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Access type: Open accessAuthor: search.filters.author.Duran, Hasan Engin

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  • Article
    The Future of Urban Hierearchy and Zipf Law: Arima and Bats Forecasting
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2025) Duran, Hasan Engin
    Zipf's Law is recognized as a power law which is used to identify the extent and the evolution of the urban hierarchies. The existing studies have mostly adopted a retrospective view by analysing the past patterns. However, we would like to shed a light onto the future trajectories. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the future of Urban Hierarchies and Zipf's Law for the U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and the period 1969-2070. Having applied, two forecasting methods; i."ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)", ii. "BATS (Exponential smoothing state space model Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components)" and the estimation of rank-size rule, we obtained crucial conclusions (Box and Jenkins in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1970; Box et al. in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Wiley, New Jersey, 2016; Kinney in Acc Rev 53:48-60, 1978; Hyndman et al. in R package version 8.24.0, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/forecast/forecast.pdf, 2025; De Livera in: Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework, Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University (Working Papers 10/10). https://www.monash.edu/business/econometrics-and-business%20statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp10-10.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in: Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing. (Working paper 15/09), Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University. https://robjhyndman.com/papers/ComplexSeasonality.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 106:1513-1527, 2011). We provide evidence that the Zipf's Law is observed not to hold over the last century and, if existing conditions hold, it is not expected to be valid in the next 50 years. Pareto exponent is found significantly below the Pareto level, historically, currently and prospectively.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 5
    Citation - Scopus: 7
    Polycentricity and Regional Economic Resilience: a Ridge Regression Approach
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Cifci, Burcu Degerli; Duran, Hasan Engin
    Resilience and "polycentricity" have surged as popular concepts over the recent decades, although the link between the two has not yet been investigated empirically. Identification of this relationship and its theoretical justification are politically crucial to shed light on prospective policies for urbanization and regionalization. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of polycentricity/monocentricity on the regional resilience of Turkish (Nuts-2) regions against the global financial crisis in 2008/09. This paper also identifies the channels through which it can influence resilience. Through the application of a rich set of empirical tools, including computation of monocentricity degree, resistance, recovery, and adaptability indexes based on national and regional business cycle turning points, LOESS, RIDGE regressions, and inferential mediation tests, three main conclusions were obtained. First, polycentric regions were evidently more resistant to the crisis compared to monocentric morphologies; the later were more industrialized and open to trade, which made them more vulnerable to the crisis. Second, polycentric spatial structures were found to recover more quickly compared to monocentric regions. Third, monocentric regions clearly adapt better to long-term trajectories. In sum, the wellknown strategy of the European Union rooted in "polycentric development" can still be valid for the purposes such as resisting to and recovering from economic disruptions. However, in the long-run, polycentrilization can hardly be seen as an optimal strategy, particularly in the context of adapting to the future trajectories.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Socio-Economic and Development Disparities Over the Long-Run: Exploring Spatial Heterogeneities in the Case of Turkey
    (Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2024) Duran, Hasan Engin; Cifci, Burcu Degerli; Karabakan, Berfin; Dogan, Fehmi
    The aim of this paper is to explore the evolution of socioeconomic development and income disparities and convergence patterns across Turkish provinces, emphasizing the impact of spatial heterogeneities. We propose two types of contributions to the literature. First, most of the studies that apply the 13- convergence method presume a unique 13 parameter, assuming that all regions homogenously converge to the steady state at the same pace. However, we argue that relaxing this assumption by way of considering spatial heterogeneities might be more informative. Second, we provide a simple solution to a severe problem: The neoclassical model assumes a monotonic saddle path along which economic fluctuations are not considered, which might be particularly influential with regard to convergence when the time span is too short to capture long-term evolution. Many empirical studies cover only short periods, which may be easily dominated by recessions or expansions, significantly biasing the results. To overcome this problem, we look into two datasets covering long periods (1963-2017 and 1975-2021). Having applied various empirical methods, such as spatial regressions, GWR and nonparametric regressions, we obtain several results. First, at the country level, there is empirical evidence of regional convergence and decreasing development inequalities. Second, however, this convergence process is not valid in all areas. We conclude that there is nonnegligible spatial heterogeneity that should be taken into account in such analyses.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 4
    Citation - Scopus: 4
    The Future of Regional Inequalities: an Arima Forecast
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2024) Duran, Hasan Engin
    The existing stream of empirical literature on regional inequalities has always adopted a retrospective look by analyzing the past evolution. We depart from the main stream by adopting a future perspective: Will regional inequalities shrink over time? How will the shape of income distribution evolve? Will spatial dependency increase? In the current paper, we forecast the long-term trajectory of per capita real personal income for U.S. states using the ARIMA model. We estimate the future of disparity level (for 2050 and 2090), the shape and spatial pattern of income distribution, convergence trend and spatial dependence by the help of inequality indexes (Atkinson, Coefficient of Variation, Theil) Kernel probability density distributions, explorative maps and Moran's I test. The dataset includes 48 coterminous U.S. states over the period 1929-2022. A set of important results appeared to emerge as an outcome of the empirical analyses: First, income disparities are expected to increase over the long-term period that implies a divergence pattern. Second, the forecasted shape of the income distribution is bi-modal and polarized, therefore, pointing to a widening of the inequalities. Third, the geography of the prosperity is projected to change in a way that the geographical position of high and low-income areas will change. Fourth, spatial dependence in per capita income is expected to fade away in the future. From a political stand point, additional resources should be devoted to the states that are expected to become backward (for some states in Northeast and Southwest) in order to maintain territorial cohesion.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    State-Level Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy Stress
    (Instytut Badan Gospodarczych/Institute of Economic Research (Poland), 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Gajewski, Pawel
    Research background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed's) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 12
    Citation - Scopus: 12
    Economic Resilience and Regionally Differentiated Cycles: Evidence From a Turning Point Approach in Italy
    (Wiley, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, Ugo
    The literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region-specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well-known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 3
    Citation - Scopus: 4
    Region-Specific Turning Points in Territorial Economic Resilience: a Business Cycle Approach To Turkey
    (Routledge, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter
    Almost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009-20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession.
  • Article
    The Relationship Between Transportation Demand and Supply: Granger-Causality Test Using Time-Series Data
    (Pamukkale Üniversitesi, 2022) Duvarcı, Yavuz; Duran, Hasan Engin
    Transport demand and supply are deemed to determine each other in a cyclic manner. The major idea has been that the demand is usually the preceding one. However, in urban cases, usually the land use variables in place of supply interfere this process. Cleansing the land use variables, the regional/national level variable pairs of demand and supply are employed to analyze the cause-effect mechanism. For objectivity, the Granger-causality test (GCT) is used to understand the relationship between transportation demand and supply. The Analyses were made at four dimensions; (a)whether the nexus is one-directional or bi-directional, (b)its significance level, (c)whether demand or supply is the preceding, (d)whether the effects are short-term or long-term. Using the Turkish statistics, the GCT results showed that, in the short/medium run, overwhelmingly the supply variables preceded (mostly in railway mode), mostly unidirectional (one-way causality) manner, however, in the long-run almost no relationship was found. In other transportation modes, no significant relationship is observed. Finally, bi-directional relations were usually observed in suburban rail. The investments then should be made according to known demand. Usually, the effects of supply (especially of railways and roadways) could rather fade away in the long-run. Still, no general statement can be made for the demand/supply causality especially in terms of which one is preceding and of the direction of causality. The chaotic nature of the process reigns over with the changing conditions.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 17
    Citation - Scopus: 15
    Analyzing Housing Price Determinants in Izmir Using Spatial Models
    (Elsevier, 2022) Sayın, Zeynep Melike; Elburz, Zeynep; Duran, Hasan Engin
    The vast majority of the studies on house price dynamics focus on either structural/locational/demographic variables in a cross-sectional setting (i.e., hedonic price modeling) or on the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals in a time series framework. In this work, we argue that both approaches fall short of providing adequate information as cross-sectional analyses largely ignore the macro-dynamics, whereas time series approaches fail to incorporate the cross-sectional dimension. Current work combines both dimensions in a panel framework and provides, in this way, a methodological contribution as well as more informative analyses as it captures the impact of a wide array of variables. Thus, this study examines the housing prices in Izmir/Turkey by adopting the above-mentioned dimensions with both panel and spatial panel regressions. The study area consists of 212 neighborhoods located in different districts of Izmir. The period of analysis covers 30 months between 2017 and 2019. As an outcome of the empirical analyses, both structural/demographic, and macroeconomic variables were found evidently important. Hence, it is understood that all dimensions (structural/locational/demographic, macroeconomic) should be incorporated into comprehensive modeling. A high spatial dependence and positive spatial spillover effects were also detected.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 8
    Citation - Scopus: 13
    Heterogenous Responses To Monetary Policy Regimes: a Regional Analysis for Turkey, 2009-2019
    (Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Karahasan, Burhan Can
    The heterogeneous response of regions to interest rate shocks is a severe issue that reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. While the impact of interest rate shocks is central on policymaking, less has been discussed about the spatial heterogeneity in influencing macroeconomic policy implementations. In order to fill this gap, the authors explore regional responses to monetary policy in developing countries, such as Turkey. The main aim of the paper is to investigate how different regions adjust the extent of real economic activity in response to an exogenous country-wide shock in the interest rate policy. The analyses cover 81 Turkish provinces using monthly data from January 2009 to November 2019. To consider temporal and spatial patterns in the same framework, time-series analyses via unit root, co-integration, and VAR with spatial methods have been combined, including exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric models. Preliminary findings validate that regional economic activity measured by employment responses is heterogeneous across provinces and policy regimes. Among the different determinants in assessing responsiveness to monetary policy shocks, interest rate, broad credit channels, and certain regional demographics have explanatory power. Moreover, sizeable spatial spillovers have been detected, which are believed to be crucial in evaluating the externalities and the exact impact of the country-wide policy shock in Turkey. Combined results indicate that the macroeconomic policy impact and spatial externalities are visible only during monetary expansion periods.