WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150

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Author: search.filters.author.Duran, Hasan EnginHas files: No

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  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 2
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box-Cox Transformed Arma Process Trend Smoothing (Bats) Forecasting
    (Wiley, 2025) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Cifci, Burcu Degerli
    The vast majority of the empirical studies on regional economic inequalities has analyzed the past evolutions, while the future trajectories are often ignored. Despite, no methods exist to predict the future precisely, it is worthwhile to shed light on the prospective tendencies in order to plan and formulate the policies at the present time. The current study addresses the following questions; Will regional convergence continue in Europe? Which regions will become more prosperous? What are the future determinants of regional growth? Our dataset covers 236 NUTS-2 regions belonging to the 28 European Countries for the period 2000-2022. In terms of methodology, we use a nonlinear forecasting technique BATS ("Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components") model and Spatial Durbin Regressions along with explorative maps and descriptive statistics. As an outcome of the analyses, we obtained several remarkable results. First, regional inequalities are expected to widen by 2050 indicating the evidence of regional divergence. Second, spatial poles of prosperity are likely to change substantially. Most of the regions belonging to the countries in the "Mediterranean Basin" are predicted to remain relatively backward while many Eastern European regions are expected to rise in prosperity. Northern and Central European regions are likely to keep their prosperous position. Third, several crucial determinants of future growth patterns are detected. It appeared that younger demographic profile, industrialization and cohesion policies (particularly for CEE regions) have become key factors of future growth performance.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 2
    Is Tourism Specialisation a Trap for Economic Growth? the Case of the Italian Regions
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Biagi, Bianca; Duran, Hasan Engin; Pulina, Manuela
    Tourism activity is a pivotal driver of global economic growth in an era of globalisation. Yet, its ecological footprints call for urgent sustainable practices. This paper enriches intricate interconnections between tourism, economic growth, and sustainability. Novel insights bridge gaps in understanding the effects of domestic and international tourism, regional heterogeneities, and spill-over effects, focusing on Italian regions (2004-2019). Based on a new neoclassical model, this study integrates key indicators beyond Gross Domestic Product and physical capital, encompassing sustainability (renewable energy) and human capital within the KLEM (Capital, Labour, Energy, Materials) specification. These frameworks assess multifaceted dynamics and raise questions about whether high tourism specialisation can lead to a trap for economic growth, development and, ultimately, socio-economic inequalities. Significantly, the research uncovers notable regional heterogeneities, and spill-over effects, shedding light on distinct economic trajectories and challenges, triggering the pursuit of resilience strategies. By highlighting intricate tourism-economy-sustainability connections, this study advances sustainable tourism understanding, urging a delicate balance between tourism's economic benefits and ecosystem concerns. It emphasises the need for eco-conscious practices and economic diversification to ensure harmonious development, aligning with the SDG agenda (UN, 2024).
  • Article
    User Satisfactions on Visual Comfort and View Quality Based on Colours and Opacity of Glazing To Control Daylighting
    (Znack Publishing House, 2023) Cogul, Ilgin; Duran, Hasan Engin; Kazanasmaz, Zehra Tugce
    Windows are both components that open to the outside and gates that bring the outside elements inside as well. The visible view through windows affects users' perception of the indoor environment. Visual comfort is a key concern to create qualified interior spaces. Glazing type in naturally lit environments becomes very substantial for comfort. As glazing technologies develop, the options available for users have also increased. This study aims to find out how different glazing and view types impact user perception and satisfaction in the interior and to create design ideas for the spaces to be completed in the future. A room with various glazing transmittance (20 %, 50 %, and 90 %), colours (blue and yellow), and view types (street and landscape) are modelled virtually in Relux. A survey composed of these rendered scenes from these variations includes four questions. 40 people participated in the survey. Statistical analyses are made using Stata and EViews. Illuminance and luminance are calculated via Relux to discuss quantifiable values and subjective one together. According to the results, as transmittance increase, the rate of people finding the room pleasant and the quality of the view decrease, but a brighter environment shows up. When using tinted glazing, users mark the rooms as interesting, while pleasantness and view quality decrease. A landscape view instead of a street view in the rooms results is a more interesting, pleasant indoor environment, and higher view satisfaction.