WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150

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Author: search.filters.author.Duran, Hasan Engin

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 28
  • Article
    The Future of Urban Hierearchy and Zipf Law: Arima and Bats Forecasting
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2025) Duran, Hasan Engin
    Zipf's Law is recognized as a power law which is used to identify the extent and the evolution of the urban hierarchies. The existing studies have mostly adopted a retrospective view by analysing the past patterns. However, we would like to shed a light onto the future trajectories. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the future of Urban Hierarchies and Zipf's Law for the U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and the period 1969-2070. Having applied, two forecasting methods; i."ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)", ii. "BATS (Exponential smoothing state space model Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components)" and the estimation of rank-size rule, we obtained crucial conclusions (Box and Jenkins in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1970; Box et al. in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Wiley, New Jersey, 2016; Kinney in Acc Rev 53:48-60, 1978; Hyndman et al. in R package version 8.24.0, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/forecast/forecast.pdf, 2025; De Livera in: Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework, Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University (Working Papers 10/10). https://www.monash.edu/business/econometrics-and-business%20statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp10-10.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in: Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing. (Working paper 15/09), Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University. https://robjhyndman.com/papers/ComplexSeasonality.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 106:1513-1527, 2011). We provide evidence that the Zipf's Law is observed not to hold over the last century and, if existing conditions hold, it is not expected to be valid in the next 50 years. Pareto exponent is found significantly below the Pareto level, historically, currently and prospectively.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 5
    Citation - Scopus: 7
    Polycentricity and Regional Economic Resilience: a Ridge Regression Approach
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Cifci, Burcu Degerli; Duran, Hasan Engin
    Resilience and "polycentricity" have surged as popular concepts over the recent decades, although the link between the two has not yet been investigated empirically. Identification of this relationship and its theoretical justification are politically crucial to shed light on prospective policies for urbanization and regionalization. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of polycentricity/monocentricity on the regional resilience of Turkish (Nuts-2) regions against the global financial crisis in 2008/09. This paper also identifies the channels through which it can influence resilience. Through the application of a rich set of empirical tools, including computation of monocentricity degree, resistance, recovery, and adaptability indexes based on national and regional business cycle turning points, LOESS, RIDGE regressions, and inferential mediation tests, three main conclusions were obtained. First, polycentric regions were evidently more resistant to the crisis compared to monocentric morphologies; the later were more industrialized and open to trade, which made them more vulnerable to the crisis. Second, polycentric spatial structures were found to recover more quickly compared to monocentric regions. Third, monocentric regions clearly adapt better to long-term trajectories. In sum, the wellknown strategy of the European Union rooted in "polycentric development" can still be valid for the purposes such as resisting to and recovering from economic disruptions. However, in the long-run, polycentrilization can hardly be seen as an optimal strategy, particularly in the context of adapting to the future trajectories.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 2
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    The Future of European Regional Inequalities: Box-Cox Transformed Arma Process Trend Smoothing (Bats) Forecasting
    (Wiley, 2025) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Cifci, Burcu Degerli
    The vast majority of the empirical studies on regional economic inequalities has analyzed the past evolutions, while the future trajectories are often ignored. Despite, no methods exist to predict the future precisely, it is worthwhile to shed light on the prospective tendencies in order to plan and formulate the policies at the present time. The current study addresses the following questions; Will regional convergence continue in Europe? Which regions will become more prosperous? What are the future determinants of regional growth? Our dataset covers 236 NUTS-2 regions belonging to the 28 European Countries for the period 2000-2022. In terms of methodology, we use a nonlinear forecasting technique BATS ("Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components") model and Spatial Durbin Regressions along with explorative maps and descriptive statistics. As an outcome of the analyses, we obtained several remarkable results. First, regional inequalities are expected to widen by 2050 indicating the evidence of regional divergence. Second, spatial poles of prosperity are likely to change substantially. Most of the regions belonging to the countries in the "Mediterranean Basin" are predicted to remain relatively backward while many Eastern European regions are expected to rise in prosperity. Northern and Central European regions are likely to keep their prosperous position. Third, several crucial determinants of future growth patterns are detected. It appeared that younger demographic profile, industrialization and cohesion policies (particularly for CEE regions) have become key factors of future growth performance.
  • Article
    Citation - Scopus: 2
    Is Tourism Specialisation a Trap for Economic Growth? the Case of the Italian Regions
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Biagi, Bianca; Duran, Hasan Engin; Pulina, Manuela
    Tourism activity is a pivotal driver of global economic growth in an era of globalisation. Yet, its ecological footprints call for urgent sustainable practices. This paper enriches intricate interconnections between tourism, economic growth, and sustainability. Novel insights bridge gaps in understanding the effects of domestic and international tourism, regional heterogeneities, and spill-over effects, focusing on Italian regions (2004-2019). Based on a new neoclassical model, this study integrates key indicators beyond Gross Domestic Product and physical capital, encompassing sustainability (renewable energy) and human capital within the KLEM (Capital, Labour, Energy, Materials) specification. These frameworks assess multifaceted dynamics and raise questions about whether high tourism specialisation can lead to a trap for economic growth, development and, ultimately, socio-economic inequalities. Significantly, the research uncovers notable regional heterogeneities, and spill-over effects, shedding light on distinct economic trajectories and challenges, triggering the pursuit of resilience strategies. By highlighting intricate tourism-economy-sustainability connections, this study advances sustainable tourism understanding, urging a delicate balance between tourism's economic benefits and ecosystem concerns. It emphasises the need for eco-conscious practices and economic diversification to ensure harmonious development, aligning with the SDG agenda (UN, 2024).
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Socio-Economic and Development Disparities Over the Long-Run: Exploring Spatial Heterogeneities in the Case of Turkey
    (Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2024) Duran, Hasan Engin; Cifci, Burcu Degerli; Karabakan, Berfin; Dogan, Fehmi
    The aim of this paper is to explore the evolution of socioeconomic development and income disparities and convergence patterns across Turkish provinces, emphasizing the impact of spatial heterogeneities. We propose two types of contributions to the literature. First, most of the studies that apply the 13- convergence method presume a unique 13 parameter, assuming that all regions homogenously converge to the steady state at the same pace. However, we argue that relaxing this assumption by way of considering spatial heterogeneities might be more informative. Second, we provide a simple solution to a severe problem: The neoclassical model assumes a monotonic saddle path along which economic fluctuations are not considered, which might be particularly influential with regard to convergence when the time span is too short to capture long-term evolution. Many empirical studies cover only short periods, which may be easily dominated by recessions or expansions, significantly biasing the results. To overcome this problem, we look into two datasets covering long periods (1963-2017 and 1975-2021). Having applied various empirical methods, such as spatial regressions, GWR and nonparametric regressions, we obtain several results. First, at the country level, there is empirical evidence of regional convergence and decreasing development inequalities. Second, however, this convergence process is not valid in all areas. We conclude that there is nonnegligible spatial heterogeneity that should be taken into account in such analyses.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 4
    Citation - Scopus: 4
    The Future of Regional Inequalities: an Arima Forecast
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2024) Duran, Hasan Engin
    The existing stream of empirical literature on regional inequalities has always adopted a retrospective look by analyzing the past evolution. We depart from the main stream by adopting a future perspective: Will regional inequalities shrink over time? How will the shape of income distribution evolve? Will spatial dependency increase? In the current paper, we forecast the long-term trajectory of per capita real personal income for U.S. states using the ARIMA model. We estimate the future of disparity level (for 2050 and 2090), the shape and spatial pattern of income distribution, convergence trend and spatial dependence by the help of inequality indexes (Atkinson, Coefficient of Variation, Theil) Kernel probability density distributions, explorative maps and Moran's I test. The dataset includes 48 coterminous U.S. states over the period 1929-2022. A set of important results appeared to emerge as an outcome of the empirical analyses: First, income disparities are expected to increase over the long-term period that implies a divergence pattern. Second, the forecasted shape of the income distribution is bi-modal and polarized, therefore, pointing to a widening of the inequalities. Third, the geography of the prosperity is projected to change in a way that the geographical position of high and low-income areas will change. Fourth, spatial dependence in per capita income is expected to fade away in the future. From a political stand point, additional resources should be devoted to the states that are expected to become backward (for some states in Northeast and Southwest) in order to maintain territorial cohesion.
  • Article
    User Satisfactions on Visual Comfort and View Quality Based on Colours and Opacity of Glazing To Control Daylighting
    (Znack Publishing House, 2023) Cogul, Ilgin; Duran, Hasan Engin; Kazanasmaz, Zehra Tugce
    Windows are both components that open to the outside and gates that bring the outside elements inside as well. The visible view through windows affects users' perception of the indoor environment. Visual comfort is a key concern to create qualified interior spaces. Glazing type in naturally lit environments becomes very substantial for comfort. As glazing technologies develop, the options available for users have also increased. This study aims to find out how different glazing and view types impact user perception and satisfaction in the interior and to create design ideas for the spaces to be completed in the future. A room with various glazing transmittance (20 %, 50 %, and 90 %), colours (blue and yellow), and view types (street and landscape) are modelled virtually in Relux. A survey composed of these rendered scenes from these variations includes four questions. 40 people participated in the survey. Statistical analyses are made using Stata and EViews. Illuminance and luminance are calculated via Relux to discuss quantifiable values and subjective one together. According to the results, as transmittance increase, the rate of people finding the room pleasant and the quality of the view decrease, but a brighter environment shows up. When using tinted glazing, users mark the rooms as interesting, while pleasantness and view quality decrease. A landscape view instead of a street view in the rooms results is a more interesting, pleasant indoor environment, and higher view satisfaction.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    State-Level Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy Stress
    (Instytut Badan Gospodarczych/Institute of Economic Research (Poland), 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Gajewski, Pawel
    Research background: Taylor rule is a widely adopted approach to follow monetary policy and investigate various mechanisms related to or triggered by monetary policy. To date, no in-depth examination of scale, determinants and spillovers of state-level monetary policy stress, stemming from the Federal Reserve Board's (Fed's) policy has been performed. Purpose of the article: This paper aims to investigate the nature of monetary policy stress on US States delivered by the single monetary policy by using a quarterly dataset spanning the years between 1989 and 2017. Methods: We apply a wide array of time series and panel regressions, such as unit root tests, co-integration tests, co-integrating FMOLS and DOLS regressions, and Spatial Panel SAR and SEM models. Findings & value added: When average stress imposed on states is calculated, it is observed that the level of stress is moderate, but the distribution across states is asymmetric. The cross-state determinants behind the average stress show that states with a higher percentage of working-age and highly educated population, as well as those with higher population density and more export-oriented are negatively stressed (i.e. they experience excessively low interest rates), whereas higher unemployment rate contributes to a positive stress (too high interest rates). To the best of our knowledge, the contribution of this paper lies in estimating monetary policy stress at the state level and unveiling some of the determinants of this stress. Moreover, the paper makes the first attempt to empirically test spatial spillovers of the stress, which are indeed found significant and negative.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 12
    Citation - Scopus: 12
    Economic Resilience and Regionally Differentiated Cycles: Evidence From a Turning Point Approach in Italy
    (Wiley, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, Ugo
    The literature on regional resilience often neglects the timing of recessions and simply uses national cycles. Region-specific cycles and turning points might bias the results, however, and affect the choice of regions to target with policies. This paper investigates the geography and determinants of regional resilience with a regional turning point approach, using data for Italy, a country with a well-known and sizeable regional divide. The results show that the timing of regional cycles varies substantially and that the detected resilience determinants are different across the two approaches, implying that the policy levers may be wrongly estimated with national turning points.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 3
    Citation - Scopus: 4
    Region-Specific Turning Points in Territorial Economic Resilience: a Business Cycle Approach To Turkey
    (Routledge, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, Peter
    Almost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009-20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession.