WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150

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Author: search.filters.author.Ferreira-Lopes, AlexandraInstitution Author: search.filters.institutionAuthor.Duran, Hasan Engin

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  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 5
    Citation - Scopus: 5
    The Revival of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Moderation of Capital Flows After the Global Financial Crisis
    (Elsevier, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra
    This study investigates the recent trend of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and the underlying reasons for moderation in capital flows. This issue is analysed quite inadequately for the period after the Global Financial Crisis, which represents a crucial turning point for economic climate and policies. The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle is estimated using the World's 13 largest economies, with panel GMM regression, between 1996 and 2016. We uncover that the Global Financial Crisis had a persistent detrimental effect on capital liberalization, after which the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle has revived and capital mobility has decreased. We suggest two possible explanations for such moderation in capital flows: the increasing risk perception and risk aversion behaviour of fund supplying countries, which increases the home bias, and capital controls against free flow of capital that have been applied after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009.
  • Article
    Citation - WoS: 10
    Citation - Scopus: 10
    Determinants of Co-Movement and of Lead and Lag Behavior of Business Cycles in the Eurozone
    (Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2017) Duran, Hasan Engin; Ferreira-Lopes, Alexandra
    In this paper we study business cycle correlations in the Eurozone and its determinants. Additionally, we also analyze the determinants of the lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone. We explore the relevance, in the Eurozone context, using GDP and employment as the business cycle measures, of the determinants of business cycle synchronization identified in the literature, namely bilateral trade intensity, dissimilarity of labor market rigidity, dissimilarity in industrial structures, financial openness, and foreign direct investment relations. We estimate a simultaneous 4-equations model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and three-stage least square to investigate empirically the above-mentioned determinants of business cycle correlation. Bilateral trade relations present a positive influence on business cycle correlations, while the dissimilarity of labor market rigidity presents a negative influence. The rest of the above-mentioned variables are non-significant. These results are robust to the use of the Hodrick–Prescott-filter and first differences as the de-trending methods, as well as the use of GDP as the business cycle measure, excluding the financial crisis years (2008 and 2009). Results for employment as the business cycle measure are in contrast with the previous ones, and found industrial dissimilarity to be the relevant variable to determine business cycles synchronization. In what concerns the determinants of the lead and lag behavior, results show that the member states of the Eurozone that usually lead the cycle are the ones that are wealthier, with strict employment legislation, more specialized in construction and finance sectors, and more prone to international capital movements. Differences in the determinants between contemporaneous business cycles and lead and lag behavior of business cycles are especially important for policy-makers in the Eurozone to know about, in particular if asymmetric shocks between countries are set in place.