WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150
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Article Citation - WoS: 18Citation - Scopus: 18In-Depth Exploration of Temperature Trends in Morocco: Combining Traditional Methods of Mann Kendall With Innovative Ita and Ipta Approaches(Springer Basel Ag, 2024) Qadem, Zohair; Tayfur, GökmenThis study examines trends in minimum and maximum temperatures at various climate stations located in different regions of Morocco for a period of five decades (1970 to 2019). Mann-Kendall, Sen's estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) were used in the analysis. The results show significant fluctuations, at different time scales, between minimum and maximum temperatures at all stations. In coastal areas, such as Rabat Sale, minimum temperatures fell during January and February while other months saw increases. Average minimum temperatures in Rabat Sale tend to fall by 0.5 degree celsius. On the other hand, maximum temperatures in Rabat Sale rose by 0.2 degrees C. A decrease of 0.4 degree celsius for T-min and 1.6 degree celsius for T-max were observed in higher continental regions, such as Meknes. Other stations, such as Fez Sais (0.6 degree celsius T-min and 2.6 degree celsius T-max) and Taza (1.1 degree celsius T-min and 2.6 degree celsius T-max) showed an upward trend. Trends also vary, with notable increases in minimum and maximum temperatures, indicating different climatic dynamics according to altitude and locality. In particular, the ITA highlights a significant increase in annual maximum temperatures, with a P-value < 0.05 and trend slopes ranging from 0.0015 degree celsius per year in Rabat Sale to 0.0076 degree celsius per year in Taza. In addition, the IPTA results confirm diversity of upward and downward trends on monthly and seasonal scales, highlighting impact of geographical factors such as proximity to sea, topography, and continentality that contribute to formation of regional microclimates. The results highlight significant impact of climate change in Morocco.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 5Meteorological Drought and Trend Effects on Transboundary River Basins in Afghanistan(Springer, 2023) Hayat, Ehsanullah; Tayfur, GökmenAfghanistan, as a landlocked country located within central and southwestern Asia, has an arid to semi-arid climate. Most of the people are involved in agricultural activities, and a major part of the country's gross domestic product depends on agriculture, but the country has the lowest water storage capacity. Consecutive periods of drought and rapid snowmelt due to climate change have made it more challenging for suitable water resource management practices. This study investigates the historical meteorological drought characteristics across the whole country by employing the Reconnaissance Drought Index for the period 1979-2019 using data from 55 meteorological stations. Trends in precipitation and temperature are also investigated using the Mann-Kendall's and the Sen's slope statistical tests. A four-decadal countrywide drought map is generated. Extreme and severe droughts were observed in 1999 and 2000 across the whole country. Moderate drought events have started to occur with a frequency of 3 to 5 years since 1999. The decadal annual rainfall values in each river basin indicate that rainfall has decreased in the last two decades with a significant decline in 1999-2008. The trends of increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation are indications of rapid climate change in the country, especially in the south, west, and southwest regions. Due to the intensity and frequency of the droughts, river flow rates have decreased; and therefore, there is a need for the upstream and downstream neighboring countries to come to terms with the phenomenon of a new normal in the hydrological cycle and accordingly revise new water sharing treaties.Correction 3D modelling of surface spreading and underground dam groundwater recharge: Egri creek subbasin, Turkey(Springer, 2023) Şahin, Yavuz; Tayfur, GökmenArticle Citation - WoS: 16Citation - Scopus: 19Meteorological Drought Assessment and Trend Analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia(MDPI, 2023) Muse, Nur Mohamed; Tayfur, Gökmen; Safari, Mir Jafar SadeghDrought assessment and trend analysis of precipitation and temperature time series are essential in the planning and management of water resources. Long-term precipitation and temperature historical records (monthly for 41 years, from 1980 to 2020) are used to investigate annual drought characteristics and trend analysis in Somalia's northern region. Six drought indices of the normal Standardized Precipitation Index (normal-SPI), the log normal Standardized Precipitation Index (log-SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Index using the gamma distribution (Gamma-SPI), the Percent of Normal Index (PNI), the Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI), and the Deciles Index (DI) are used in this study for the annual drought assessment. The log-SPI, the gamma-SPI, the PNI, and the DPI could capture historical extreme and severe droughts that occurred in the early 1980s and over the last two decades. The results indicate that Somalia has gone through extended drought periods over the past quarter century, exacerbating the existing humanitarian situation. The normal-SPI, gamma-SPI, and PNI indicate less and moderate drought conditions, whereas log-SPI, DPI, and DI accurately capture historical extreme and severe drought periods; thus, these methods are recommended as annual drought assessment tools in the studied region. Not only are the PNI and DPI less correlated to each other, but their correlation coefficient (CC) with SPI-based drought indices are not as high as SPI-based indices which are close to unity. For the purpose of the trend analysis, the Mann Kendall (MK) test, the Spearman's rho (SR) test, and the Sen test are used. Furthermore, the Pettitt test is implemented to detect the change points and the Thiel-Sen approach is used to estimate the magnitude of trend in the precipitation and temperature time series. The results indicate that there is overall warming in the region which has experienced a significant shift in trend direction since 2000. The trend analysis of annual precipitation data time series shows that Bossaso and Garowe stations have significant positive trends, while the Qardho station has no trend. In 1997 and 1998, respectively, abrupt changes in annual precipitation are detected at Qardho and Garowe stations. Due to the civil war of more than three decades in Somalia and the non-institutionalized governance to inform historical drought conditions in the country, determining the most appropriate meteorological drought index would help to develop a drought monitoring system for states and the entire country.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 53d Modelling of Surface Spreading and Underground Dam Groundwater Recharge: Egri Creek Subbasin, Turkey(Springer, 2023) Şahin, Yavuz; Tayfur, GökmenThis study investigated surface spreading and underground dam recharge methods to replenish groundwater in Turkey's Egri Creek Sub-basin of the Kucuk Menderes River Basin. A three-dimensional numerical model was employed for this purpose. Field and lab data are provided to the model for realistic simulations. Pumping test results were used to determine the aquifer parameters. The laboratory works involved sieve analysis, permeability tests, and porosity and water content prediction. The numerical model's boundary conditions were determined from the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the study area. Initial conditions were expressed regarding water content and pressure head in the vadose zone. The numerical model was satisfactorily validated by simulating water levels in three different pumping wells in the study area. Seven different scenarios, each having a different pool size, were investigated for the surface spreading recharge method. The results showed that a pool size of 30 x 30 m with a 6-m depth basin was the most optimal choice, raising the groundwater level to about 29.3 m. On the other hand, it was found that an underground dam could raise the levels by an average of 9.5 m, which might not be significant to warrant the construction.Article Citation - WoS: 35Citation - Scopus: 38Historical Trends Associated With Annual Temperature and Precipitation in Aegean Turkey, Where Are We Heading?(MDPI, 2022) Mersin, Demirhan; Tayfur, Gökmen; Vaheddoost, Babak; Safari, Mir Jafar SadeghThe trend analysis of annual temperature (daily average) and total precipitation has been conducted for 14 stations located in the Aegean Region, Turkey. The Sen, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall test methods are used in the detection of the historical trends in the region. The Pettitt test is also implemented to find the significance of the trend, while the Theil-Sen approach is applied to detect the change point(s) in the time series. Findings of the following study indicate that both precipitation and temperature time series in the selected stations depict statistically significant trends with increasing nature. The rate of increase in precipitation and temperature by the Theil-Sen test is found to be 4.2–7.9 mm/year and 0.20–0.35 °C/decade, respectively. It is also found that the turn points of the temperature trends determined by the Pettitt test occurred in 1998 for all the stations. According to the results, the magnitude of the extreme events would change in the future, which may help in conceptualizing the framework and the resilience of the infrastructures against climate change.Article Citation - WoS: 24Citation - Scopus: 27Drought Assessment in the Aegean Region of Turkey(Springer, 2022) Mersin, Denizhan; Gülmez, Ayşe; Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Vaheddoost, Babak; Tayfur, GökmenDrought indices are commonly used to monitor the duration and severity of droughts. In this regard, the continuously changing climate regardless of its cause or effect pushes the limit of the water deficit through time and space. Izmir is a raising city in Turkey, which owns various water resources including but not limited to seashores, lakes, river streams, and groundwater aquifers. In this study, the long-term precipitation and temperature records from 14 meteorological stations between 1973 and 2020 (for 47 years) are used to investigate the drought characteristics in Buyuk Menderes, Kucuk Menderes, and Gediz basins located in the Aegean region of Turkey. For this, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Percent of Normal (PNI), and the so-called Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI) are used with consideration to 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month moving averages to investigate the drought patterns. Results showed that the monthly indices depict very similar results for the entire region. However, in the 1980s and 2010s droughts were more severe than the rest of the historical records. When the moving average operator is implemented in the analysis (3-, 6- and 12-month periods), neither SPI nor the SPEI showed the same results at any stations. It is illustrated that the periods of severe and normal drought have occurred in the past, yet the indices that are obtained using average values are generally within the normal limits, but extreme values (extremely arid or extremely wet) occurred occasionally. It is also concluded that although there is a similarity between the implemented indices, the DPI and PNI depict the highest resemblance.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5Developing Predictive Equations for Water Capturing Performance and Sediment Release Efficiency for Coanda Intakes Using Artificial Intelligence Methods(MDPI, 2022) Hazar, Oğuz; Tayfur, Gökmen; Elçi, Şebnem; Singh, Vijay P.Estimation of withdrawal water and filtered sediment amounts are important to obtain maximum efficiency from an intake structure. The purpose of this study is to develop empirical equations to predict Water Capturing Performance (WCP) and Sediment Release Efficiency (SRE) for Coanda type intakes. These equations were developed using 216 sets of experimental data. Intakes were tested under six different slopes, six screens, and three water discharges. In SRE experiments, sediment concentration was kept constant. Dimensionless parameters were first developed and then subjected to multicollinearity analysis. Then, nonlinear equations were proposed whose exponents and coefficients were obtained using the Genetic Algorithm method. The equations were calibrated and validated with 70 and 30% of the data, respectively. The validation results revealed that the empirical equations produced low MAE and RMSE and high R2 values for both the WCP and the SRE. Results showed outperformance of the empirical equations against those of MNLR. Sensitivity analysis carried out by the ANNs revealed that the geometric parameters of the intake were comparably more sensitive than the flow characteristics.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 6Prediction of Rainfall Runoff-Induced Sediment Load From Bare Land Surfaces by Generalized Regression Neural Network and Empirical Model(Wiley, 2020) Tayfur, Gökmen; Aksoy, Hafzullah; Eriş, EbruBased on three rainfall run-off-induced sediment transport data for bare surface experimental plots, the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and empirical models were developed to predict sediment load. Rainfall intensity, slope, rainfall duration, soil particle median diameter, clay content of the soil, rill density and soil particle mass density constituted the input variables of the models while sediment load was the target output. The GRNN model was trained and tested. The GRNN model was found successful in predicting sediment load. Sensitivity analysis by the GRNN model revealed that slope and rainfall duration were the most sensitive parameters. In addition to the GRNN model, two empirical models were proposed: (1) in the first empirical model, all the input variables were related to the sediment load, and (2) in the second empirical model, only rainfall intensity, slope and rainfall duration were related to the sediment load. The empirical models were calibrated and validated. At the calibration stage, the coefficients and the exponents of the empirical models were obtained using the genetic algorithm optimization method. The validated empirical models were also applied to two more experimental data sets: (1) one data set was from a field experiment, and (2) one set was from a laboratory experiment. The results indicated the success of the empirical models in predicting sediment load from bare land surfaces.Article Citation - WoS: 27Citation - Scopus: 29Fuzzy, Ann, and Regression Models To Predict Longitudinal Dispersion Coefficient in Natural Streams(IWA Publishing, 2006) Tayfur, GökmenThis study developed fuzzy, ANN, and regression-based models to predict longitudinal dispersion coefficient in natural streams from flow discharge data. 92 sets of field data were employed to calibrate and validate the models. 63 sets of data were used for the calibration while the remaining data were used for the validation of the models. The model-prediction results revealed the superiority of the developed models over the existing equations. The developed models predicted the measured data satisfactorily with minimum errors and maximum accuracy rates. The three models had comparable performances although the fuzzy model had the highest accuracy rate (79%) and lowest mean relative error (0.85).