WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150
Browse
102 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 102
Article Citation - WoS: 18Citation - Scopus: 18In-Depth Exploration of Temperature Trends in Morocco: Combining Traditional Methods of Mann Kendall With Innovative Ita and Ipta Approaches(Springer Basel Ag, 2024) Qadem, Zohair; Tayfur, GökmenThis study examines trends in minimum and maximum temperatures at various climate stations located in different regions of Morocco for a period of five decades (1970 to 2019). Mann-Kendall, Sen's estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) were used in the analysis. The results show significant fluctuations, at different time scales, between minimum and maximum temperatures at all stations. In coastal areas, such as Rabat Sale, minimum temperatures fell during January and February while other months saw increases. Average minimum temperatures in Rabat Sale tend to fall by 0.5 degree celsius. On the other hand, maximum temperatures in Rabat Sale rose by 0.2 degrees C. A decrease of 0.4 degree celsius for T-min and 1.6 degree celsius for T-max were observed in higher continental regions, such as Meknes. Other stations, such as Fez Sais (0.6 degree celsius T-min and 2.6 degree celsius T-max) and Taza (1.1 degree celsius T-min and 2.6 degree celsius T-max) showed an upward trend. Trends also vary, with notable increases in minimum and maximum temperatures, indicating different climatic dynamics according to altitude and locality. In particular, the ITA highlights a significant increase in annual maximum temperatures, with a P-value < 0.05 and trend slopes ranging from 0.0015 degree celsius per year in Rabat Sale to 0.0076 degree celsius per year in Taza. In addition, the IPTA results confirm diversity of upward and downward trends on monthly and seasonal scales, highlighting impact of geographical factors such as proximity to sea, topography, and continentality that contribute to formation of regional microclimates. The results highlight significant impact of climate change in Morocco.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 3Ensemble and Optimized Hybrid Algorithms Through Runge Kutta Optimizer for Sewer Sediment Transport Modeling Using a Data Pre-Processing Approach(Elsevier, 2023) Safari, Mir Jafar Sadegh; Gül, Enes; Dursun, Ömer Faruk; Tayfur, GökmenUncontrolled sediment deposition in drainage and sewer systems raises unexpected maintenance expenditures. To this end, implementation of an accurate model relying on effective parameters involved is a reliable benchmark. In this study, three machine learning techniques, namely extreme learning machine (ELM), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), and M5P model tree (M5PMT); and three optimization approaches of Runge Kutta (RUN), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) are applied for modeling. The optimization and ensemble hybridization approaches are applied in the modeling procedure. For the case of hybrid optimized models, the ELM and MLPNN models are hybridized with RUN, GA, and PSO algorithms to develop six hybrid models of ELM-RUN, ELM-GA, ELM-PSO, MLPNN-RUN, MLPNN-GA, and MLPNN-PSO. Ensemble hybrid models are developed through coupling the ELM and MLPNN models with the M5PMT algorithm. The data pre-processing approach is applied to find the best randomness characteristic of the utilized data. Results illustrate that the RUN-based hybrid models outperform the GA- and PSO-based counterparts. Although the MLPNN-RUN and MLPNN-M5PMT hybrid models generate better results than their alternatives, MLPNN-M5PMT slightly outperforms MLPNN-RUN model with a coefficient of determination of 0.84 and a root mean square error of 0.88. The current study shows the superiority of the ensemble-based approach to the optimization techniques. Further investigation is needed by considering alternative optimization techniques to enhance sediment transport modeling. © 2023 International Research and Training Centre on Erosion and Sedimentation/the World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion ResearchArticle Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 5Meteorological Drought and Trend Effects on Transboundary River Basins in Afghanistan(Springer, 2023) Hayat, Ehsanullah; Tayfur, GökmenAfghanistan, as a landlocked country located within central and southwestern Asia, has an arid to semi-arid climate. Most of the people are involved in agricultural activities, and a major part of the country's gross domestic product depends on agriculture, but the country has the lowest water storage capacity. Consecutive periods of drought and rapid snowmelt due to climate change have made it more challenging for suitable water resource management practices. This study investigates the historical meteorological drought characteristics across the whole country by employing the Reconnaissance Drought Index for the period 1979-2019 using data from 55 meteorological stations. Trends in precipitation and temperature are also investigated using the Mann-Kendall's and the Sen's slope statistical tests. A four-decadal countrywide drought map is generated. Extreme and severe droughts were observed in 1999 and 2000 across the whole country. Moderate drought events have started to occur with a frequency of 3 to 5 years since 1999. The decadal annual rainfall values in each river basin indicate that rainfall has decreased in the last two decades with a significant decline in 1999-2008. The trends of increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation are indications of rapid climate change in the country, especially in the south, west, and southwest regions. Due to the intensity and frequency of the droughts, river flow rates have decreased; and therefore, there is a need for the upstream and downstream neighboring countries to come to terms with the phenomenon of a new normal in the hydrological cycle and accordingly revise new water sharing treaties.Correction 3D modelling of surface spreading and underground dam groundwater recharge: Egri creek subbasin, Turkey(Springer, 2023) Şahin, Yavuz; Tayfur, GökmenArticle Citation - WoS: 16Citation - Scopus: 19Meteorological Drought Assessment and Trend Analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia(MDPI, 2023) Muse, Nur Mohamed; Tayfur, Gökmen; Safari, Mir Jafar SadeghDrought assessment and trend analysis of precipitation and temperature time series are essential in the planning and management of water resources. Long-term precipitation and temperature historical records (monthly for 41 years, from 1980 to 2020) are used to investigate annual drought characteristics and trend analysis in Somalia's northern region. Six drought indices of the normal Standardized Precipitation Index (normal-SPI), the log normal Standardized Precipitation Index (log-SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Index using the gamma distribution (Gamma-SPI), the Percent of Normal Index (PNI), the Discrepancy Precipitation Index (DPI), and the Deciles Index (DI) are used in this study for the annual drought assessment. The log-SPI, the gamma-SPI, the PNI, and the DPI could capture historical extreme and severe droughts that occurred in the early 1980s and over the last two decades. The results indicate that Somalia has gone through extended drought periods over the past quarter century, exacerbating the existing humanitarian situation. The normal-SPI, gamma-SPI, and PNI indicate less and moderate drought conditions, whereas log-SPI, DPI, and DI accurately capture historical extreme and severe drought periods; thus, these methods are recommended as annual drought assessment tools in the studied region. Not only are the PNI and DPI less correlated to each other, but their correlation coefficient (CC) with SPI-based drought indices are not as high as SPI-based indices which are close to unity. For the purpose of the trend analysis, the Mann Kendall (MK) test, the Spearman's rho (SR) test, and the Sen test are used. Furthermore, the Pettitt test is implemented to detect the change points and the Thiel-Sen approach is used to estimate the magnitude of trend in the precipitation and temperature time series. The results indicate that there is overall warming in the region which has experienced a significant shift in trend direction since 2000. The trend analysis of annual precipitation data time series shows that Bossaso and Garowe stations have significant positive trends, while the Qardho station has no trend. In 1997 and 1998, respectively, abrupt changes in annual precipitation are detected at Qardho and Garowe stations. Due to the civil war of more than three decades in Somalia and the non-institutionalized governance to inform historical drought conditions in the country, determining the most appropriate meteorological drought index would help to develop a drought monitoring system for states and the entire country.Article Citation - WoS: 16Citation - Scopus: 19Comparative Analysis of Estimation of Slope-Length Gradient (ls) Factor for Entire Afghanistan(Taylor & Francis, 2023) Ansari, Ahmad; Tayfur, GökmenSlope length gradient (LS) is one of the crucial factors in the Universal Soil Loss Equations (USLE, RUSLE). This study aimed at estimating the slope-length and slope-steepness (LS) factor for the entire watersheds of Afghanistan by using three different methods, namely; (1) LS-TOOLMFD (Method 1); (2) The Method of Equations (Method 2); and (3) The approach of Moore and Burch (Method 3). The first method uses the digital elevation model (DEM) in the ASCII format, and the other two methods use the DEM in the spatial domain. The results show that the LS-factor of the study area ranges from 0.01 to 44.31, with a mean of 5.24 and standard deviation of 6.95, according to Method 1; 0.03 to 163.49, with a mean of 9.6 and standard deviation of 13.58, according to Method 2; and 0 to 3985, with a mean of 7.16 and standard deviation of 29.7, according to Method 3. The study reveals that Methods 1 and 2 are more appropriate than Method 3 because Method 3 yields high LS-factor values close to or at streamlines located near mountainous regions. The highest LS values are found to be in the northeast, north, and central regions of Afghanistan, which is consistent with the high mountains and deep valley geomorphology, indicating that these regions are particularly vulnerable to soil erosion by rainfall-runoff processes. The sediment delivery ratio (SDR) for the Upper-Helmand River Basin (Upper-HRB) is also estimated by the RUSLE, employing the LS factors produced by the three methods. The results revealed that the average annual soil loss is found to be, respectively, 9.3, 18.2, and 11.1 (ton/ha/year) by using the three methods, corresponding to SDR of 23.5%, 12.1%, and 19.9%.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 53d Modelling of Surface Spreading and Underground Dam Groundwater Recharge: Egri Creek Subbasin, Turkey(Springer, 2023) Şahin, Yavuz; Tayfur, GökmenThis study investigated surface spreading and underground dam recharge methods to replenish groundwater in Turkey's Egri Creek Sub-basin of the Kucuk Menderes River Basin. A three-dimensional numerical model was employed for this purpose. Field and lab data are provided to the model for realistic simulations. Pumping test results were used to determine the aquifer parameters. The laboratory works involved sieve analysis, permeability tests, and porosity and water content prediction. The numerical model's boundary conditions were determined from the geological and hydrogeological characteristics of the study area. Initial conditions were expressed regarding water content and pressure head in the vadose zone. The numerical model was satisfactorily validated by simulating water levels in three different pumping wells in the study area. Seven different scenarios, each having a different pool size, were investigated for the surface spreading recharge method. The results showed that a pool size of 30 x 30 m with a 6-m depth basin was the most optimal choice, raising the groundwater level to about 29.3 m. On the other hand, it was found that an underground dam could raise the levels by an average of 9.5 m, which might not be significant to warrant the construction.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Numerical Simulation of Flow and Dam Body Sediment Over a Movable Bed Due To an Earthfill Dam Break(Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, 2022) Tayfur, Gökmen; Issakhov, Alibek; Zhandaulet, YeldosThis paper presents the numerical simulations of flow and dam body sediment transport over a movable bed due to an earthfill dam break. The RANS equations, together with the k-omega SST turbulent model, are employed. The phase characteristic parameter is used as the phases of air, water, sediment, and bulk of dam body. The system of equations is solved numerically using the PISO algorithm. The numerical model is first verified using the dam break experimental data from the literature. The model successfully captures the temporal changes in the measured flow depths, pressures, wave fronts, and arrival times. The ve rified mod el is then app lied to simulate the flow and sediment transport as a result of an artificial earthfill dam break having an obstacle at its downstream section. The simulations show that there is a noticeable decrease in the shock pressures at all points around the obstacle and there is an increase in the water levels. The bulk dam body sediment moves together with the water flow wh ile sp reading. It takes longer time for the sediment laden flow to reach the obstacle. The investigation of dam body formed by different soils shows that the soil type has minor effect while the transport of sediment can raise the water levels and change the morphology of the downstream section.Article Citation - WoS: 10Citation - Scopus: 11Experimental Investigation of Sediment Movement as a Result of Homogeneous Earth-Fill Dam Overtopping Break Over a Simplified Urban Area(Elsevier, 2023) Taşkaya, Ebru; Bombar, Gökçen; Tayfur, GökmenWhen an earth-fill dam breaks, dam body sediment and water flow simultaneously move to downstream area causing devastation. Dam break studies in the literature have concentrated mostly on the water flow part while ignoring the sediment movement by designing the dam body as a movable metal gate. This study, however, is the first one experimentally investigating flow and sediment transport due to an earth-fill dam break by constructing the dam body from sediment. Sediment propagation as a result of homogenous earth-fill dam overtopping break was experimentally studied in a laboratory flume of 18.4 m long and 2.0 m wide, and 0.88 m in height in the Hydraulics Laboratory of Izmir Katip Celebi University, Izmir, Turkey. Downstream section right after the dam body was designed as a smooth bed and rough bed. The rough bed, resembling a simplified urban area, was created by using thirteen 10 × 10 × 10 cm sized concrete blocks. The dam body was constructed as homogenous with uniform material having D50 = 0.441 mm. The earth-fill dam body was built using the standard compression methods; each layer of sediment with a thickness of 10 cm was laid in layers, and the body was prepared with a crest width of 10 cm, a transverse base width of 200 cm, a longitudinal base width of 202 cm and height of 60 cm with upstream and downstream slopes of 1:1.6. The water level behind the dam was gradually raised until it overtopped the crest level. A pre-breach was formed at the top of the dam to trigger the break. During each dam break event, water depths were measured by three ULS-40D level meter sensors at different locations, and the final sediment bathymetry map was generated using the ULS-40D Probes at 10 × 10 cm grids. The results showed that, in both smooth and rough downstream bed cases, the dam body eventually collapsed while a great portion of it was carried away by the flood flow. The sediment spreading occurred all over the downstream area, showing significant non-uniform variation in thickness both longitudinally and transversely, especially in the simulated urban area. All the residential areas, while breaking in motion, were submerged under the muddy flow. Some blocks were almost submerged while sediment heights reached half level of some blocks at the end of the experiment. Sediment heights were higher in the urban area.Article Citation - WoS: 35Citation - Scopus: 38Historical Trends Associated With Annual Temperature and Precipitation in Aegean Turkey, Where Are We Heading?(MDPI, 2022) Mersin, Demirhan; Tayfur, Gökmen; Vaheddoost, Babak; Safari, Mir Jafar SadeghThe trend analysis of annual temperature (daily average) and total precipitation has been conducted for 14 stations located in the Aegean Region, Turkey. The Sen, Spearman’s rho, and Mann-Kendall test methods are used in the detection of the historical trends in the region. The Pettitt test is also implemented to find the significance of the trend, while the Theil-Sen approach is applied to detect the change point(s) in the time series. Findings of the following study indicate that both precipitation and temperature time series in the selected stations depict statistically significant trends with increasing nature. The rate of increase in precipitation and temperature by the Theil-Sen test is found to be 4.2–7.9 mm/year and 0.20–0.35 °C/decade, respectively. It is also found that the turn points of the temperature trends determined by the Pettitt test occurred in 1998 for all the stations. According to the results, the magnitude of the extreme events would change in the future, which may help in conceptualizing the framework and the resilience of the infrastructures against climate change.