WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collection
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/7150
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Article The Future of Urban Hierearchy and Zipf Law: Arima and Bats Forecasting(Springer Heidelberg, 2025) Duran, Hasan EnginZipf's Law is recognized as a power law which is used to identify the extent and the evolution of the urban hierarchies. The existing studies have mostly adopted a retrospective view by analysing the past patterns. However, we would like to shed a light onto the future trajectories. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the future of Urban Hierarchies and Zipf's Law for the U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) and the period 1969-2070. Having applied, two forecasting methods; i."ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)", ii. "BATS (Exponential smoothing state space model Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components)" and the estimation of rank-size rule, we obtained crucial conclusions (Box and Jenkins in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1970; Box et al. in: Time series analysis: forecasting and control, Wiley, New Jersey, 2016; Kinney in Acc Rev 53:48-60, 1978; Hyndman et al. in R package version 8.24.0, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/forecast/forecast.pdf, 2025; De Livera in: Automatic forecasting with a modified exponential smoothing state space framework, Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University (Working Papers 10/10). https://www.monash.edu/business/econometrics-and-business%20statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp10-10.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in: Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing. (Working paper 15/09), Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University. https://robjhyndman.com/papers/ComplexSeasonality.pdf, 2010; De Livera et al. in J Am Stat Assoc 106:1513-1527, 2011). We provide evidence that the Zipf's Law is observed not to hold over the last century and, if existing conditions hold, it is not expected to be valid in the next 50 years. Pareto exponent is found significantly below the Pareto level, historically, currently and prospectively.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4The Future of Regional Inequalities: an Arima Forecast(Springer Heidelberg, 2024) Duran, Hasan EnginThe existing stream of empirical literature on regional inequalities has always adopted a retrospective look by analyzing the past evolution. We depart from the main stream by adopting a future perspective: Will regional inequalities shrink over time? How will the shape of income distribution evolve? Will spatial dependency increase? In the current paper, we forecast the long-term trajectory of per capita real personal income for U.S. states using the ARIMA model. We estimate the future of disparity level (for 2050 and 2090), the shape and spatial pattern of income distribution, convergence trend and spatial dependence by the help of inequality indexes (Atkinson, Coefficient of Variation, Theil) Kernel probability density distributions, explorative maps and Moran's I test. The dataset includes 48 coterminous U.S. states over the period 1929-2022. A set of important results appeared to emerge as an outcome of the empirical analyses: First, income disparities are expected to increase over the long-term period that implies a divergence pattern. Second, the forecasted shape of the income distribution is bi-modal and polarized, therefore, pointing to a widening of the inequalities. Third, the geography of the prosperity is projected to change in a way that the geographical position of high and low-income areas will change. Fourth, spatial dependence in per capita income is expected to fade away in the future. From a political stand point, additional resources should be devoted to the states that are expected to become backward (for some states in Northeast and Southwest) in order to maintain territorial cohesion.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 4Region-Specific Turning Points in Territorial Economic Resilience: a Business Cycle Approach To Turkey(Routledge, 2023) Duran, Hasan Engin; Elburz, Zeynep; Kourtit, Karima; Nijkamp, PeterAlmost all regional economic resilience studies measure resilience by referring to national time patterns of recessions. This study of region-specific patterns of resilience of 81 Turkish regions in the period 2009-20 and their underlying economic/demographic determinants in regions in Turkey shows that ignoring the different timings of regional and national economy recessions leads to misleading/biased results. The study shows first that provincial employment cycles are asynchronous. Second, the geographical pattern of resistance to the last 2018 economic crisis changes considerably when using province-specific rather than national turning points. Third, those provinces that are more open to trade, export- oriented, highly urbanised, and with a low level of human capital and entrepreneurial activities were more resistant to the recession.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 13Heterogenous Responses To Monetary Policy Regimes: a Regional Analysis for Turkey, 2009-2019(Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2022) Duran, Hasan Engin; Karahasan, Burhan CanThe heterogeneous response of regions to interest rate shocks is a severe issue that reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. While the impact of interest rate shocks is central on policymaking, less has been discussed about the spatial heterogeneity in influencing macroeconomic policy implementations. In order to fill this gap, the authors explore regional responses to monetary policy in developing countries, such as Turkey. The main aim of the paper is to investigate how different regions adjust the extent of real economic activity in response to an exogenous country-wide shock in the interest rate policy. The analyses cover 81 Turkish provinces using monthly data from January 2009 to November 2019. To consider temporal and spatial patterns in the same framework, time-series analyses via unit root, co-integration, and VAR with spatial methods have been combined, including exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric models. Preliminary findings validate that regional economic activity measured by employment responses is heterogeneous across provinces and policy regimes. Among the different determinants in assessing responsiveness to monetary policy shocks, interest rate, broad credit channels, and certain regional demographics have explanatory power. Moreover, sizeable spatial spillovers have been detected, which are believed to be crucial in evaluating the externalities and the exact impact of the country-wide policy shock in Turkey. Combined results indicate that the macroeconomic policy impact and spatial externalities are visible only during monetary expansion periods.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 9The Distribution of City Sizes in Turkey: a Failure of Zipf's Law Due To Concavity(Wiley, 2021) Duran, Hasan Engin; Cieslik, AndrzejThe linearity of the distribution of city sizes is often assumed in the existing literature. Although different functional forms were tried, almost all of them impose a certain functional shape. In this study, we investigate the urban hierarchy and Zipf's law using data for 973 Turkish subprovincial cities in 2019. We contribute to the literature in several ways. We force no definite functional form to observe the natural shape and employ nonparametric and quadratic regressions. We incorporate formal procedures of spatial dependence in regression models. We demonstrate that the linear model overestimates the Pareto exponent for small cities and underestimates it for bigger cities. We show that city sizes are unevenly distributed in Turkey. The rank-size rule is not valid in Turkey, either above or below a certain city-size truncation level. Thus, the Pareto exponent estimated from the linear model is not a reliable indicator as quadratic regressions perform much better.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 5Social Capital and Regional Development in Turkey(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2020) Arslan, Hüseyin Mert; Duran, Hasan EnginThis paper aims to improve the shortcomings of the empirical literature on regional social capital. The following three research questions are addressed: (i) do regional social capital and economic growth have an endoneous (circular) relationship as opposed to the exogenous one-way relationship assumed in the literature; (ii) What are the socio-economic and demographic determinants of cross-regional variation in social capital? And (iii) Are spatial spillovers relevant in the analysis of these questions? Empirically, we pursue the analysis for 81 Turkish provinces in 2015. Indeed, regional social capital in Turkey is far less studied than country-level social capital. The methodology adopted includes kernel density estimates, ordinary least squares, three stage least squares, and spatial error models. In terms of the obtained results, First, regional social capital is heterogenously distributed across regions. Second, social capital has no significant impact on economic growth but the growth induces the generation of social capital (in social norms). This represents a first result of reserve causality in the literature. Third, a typical province that has high social capital is the one with relatively high income, more even income distribution, low unemployment, big households and older age profile. Fourth, there is the evidence of spatial dependence that should be incorporated in empirical analyses.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2Regional Inflation Persistence in Turkey(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2021) Duran, Hasan Engin; Dindaroğlu, BurakThe purpose of the current study is to investigate the degree of inflation persistence, its geographical variation, sources of cross-regional variation, and presence of geographical/sectoral aggregation bias in national monetary policy. Our data set covers 26 NUTS-2 level Turkish regions and monthly CPI inflation over the period 2003-2019. We first estimate the degree of regional inflation persistence by autoregressive regressions, check its robustness against the presence of structural breaks (by Bai-Perron's algorithm) and nonlinearities (by Markovian Regime Switching regressions). Second, we examine the possibility of geographical and sectoral aggregation bias. Third, we investigate the cross-regional determinants of inflation persistence by panel data analysis, employing hybrid-effects spatial panel regressions. We analyze the direct and indirect effects of the determinants and test for regional spillover effects. Three main results are obtained. First, estimated persistence degrees are heterogeneous across regions. The geographical pattern is empirically robust against structural breaks and nonlinearities. We find that inflation persistence is distributed in a spatially correlated manner. Second, when sectoral and regional aggregation bias is tested, only sectoral aggregation indicates a considerable level of bias. Third, we find that the presence of large firms in the region and a higher share of agricultural output in GDP leads to lower persistence, while an increased share of industrial output, and increased trade volume leads to higher inflation persistence. Moreover, we find spatial spillovers of price variability evident in regression analysis. From a policy standpoint, it is required that structural policy programs are targeted to maintain flexibility in the regions where persistence is high (i.e., providing market entry/exit, institutional quality, policy credibility, stimulation of SMEs). Moreover, sectors that have high persistence, such as Hotels and Restaurants (persistence degree 0.55) and Health Services (0.39) should be weighted more in CPI calculations.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 10Employment Volatility in Lagging and Advanced Regions: the Italian Case(Wiley, 2020) Duran, Hasan Engin; Fratesi, UgoThe presence of cycles characterizes all economic systems, but economic cycles have differentiated spatial impacts. Some regions have broader cycles with respect to the country, while others tend to be less responsive to shocks and hence have narrower cycles. Being exposed to broader cycles, that is, greater volatility, may increase the strain on a regional economic system. This paper investigates the different responsiveness to cyclical forces and volatility of regions in the long run. It does so by using quarterly employment data for the Nuts2 Italian regions over almost 40 years before and during the period 1978-2016. Explored in particular are the cross-regional variations in employment volatility and the reasons for the patterns observed, as well as whether they have changed the following different macroeconomic policy regimes. The paper identifies the break dates of different regimes, and these regime changes will be related to policy modifications, such as the implementation of the European Monetary Union. The determinants of this regional volatility appear to be quite stable, so that the changes in volatility are explained by how these determinants have changed overtime and how they are unevenly distributed in space. In particular, the lagging regions of the country suffer, in addition to lower production and income, from higher volatility due to a structure which is weaker and more unstable. Volatility can hence be an additional issue for lagging regions.Article Citation - WoS: 10Citation - Scopus: 10Determinants of Co-Movement and of Lead and Lag Behavior of Business Cycles in the Eurozone(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2017) Duran, Hasan Engin; Ferreira-Lopes, AlexandraIn this paper we study business cycle correlations in the Eurozone and its determinants. Additionally, we also analyze the determinants of the lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone. We explore the relevance, in the Eurozone context, using GDP and employment as the business cycle measures, of the determinants of business cycle synchronization identified in the literature, namely bilateral trade intensity, dissimilarity of labor market rigidity, dissimilarity in industrial structures, financial openness, and foreign direct investment relations. We estimate a simultaneous 4-equations model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and three-stage least square to investigate empirically the above-mentioned determinants of business cycle correlation. Bilateral trade relations present a positive influence on business cycle correlations, while the dissimilarity of labor market rigidity presents a negative influence. The rest of the above-mentioned variables are non-significant. These results are robust to the use of the Hodrick–Prescott-filter and first differences as the de-trending methods, as well as the use of GDP as the business cycle measure, excluding the financial crisis years (2008 and 2009). Results for employment as the business cycle measure are in contrast with the previous ones, and found industrial dissimilarity to be the relevant variable to determine business cycles synchronization. In what concerns the determinants of the lead and lag behavior, results show that the member states of the Eurozone that usually lead the cycle are the ones that are wealthier, with strict employment legislation, more specialized in construction and finance sectors, and more prone to international capital movements. Differences in the determinants between contemporaneous business cycles and lead and lag behavior of business cycles are especially important for policy-makers in the Eurozone to know about, in particular if asymmetric shocks between countries are set in place.Article Citation - WoS: 13Citation - Scopus: 18Short-Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.s.(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2014) Duran, Hasan EnginSince the 1990s, the issue of regional income convergence and its long-term tendencies has been thoroughly and heatedly discussed. Much less attention, however, has been devoted to the short-run dynamics of regional convergence. In particular, three important aspects have not yet been adequately addressed. First, it is indeed essential to understand whether regional disparities manifest a tendency to move systematically along the national cycle. Then, if this happens to be the case, it becomes crucial to know whether 1) these movements are pro- or counter-cyclical,2) the cyclical evolution of the disparities is a consequence of differences in the timing with which the business cycle is felt in regions or it is motivated by the amplitude differences across local cyclical swings. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using data on personal income for the 48 coterminous U.S. states between 1969 and 2008. Our results indicate that income disparities do not move randomly in the short run but follow a distinct cyclical pattern, moving either pro- or counter-cyclically depending on the period of analysis. These patterns are probably explained by the changes in the direction of capital and labor flows that favor developed or poorer states in different periods. As for the underlying mechanism, it appears that the short-run evolution of the disparities in recent years is largely a consequence of differences in the timing with which the business cycle is felt across states rather than the outcome of amplitude differences across local cyclical swings.