Phd Degree / Doktora

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/2869

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Author: search.filters.author.Kale, SerdarDepartment: search.filters.department.Thesis (Doctoral)--İzmir Institute of Technology, Architecture

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Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
  • Doctoral Thesis
    An Agent Based Model for Exploring the Effects of Overconfidence on the Winner's Curse in Construction Projects
    (01. Izmir Institute of Technology, 2022) Aldemir, Bora; Kale, Serdar
    As a result of errors in cost estimation, the winning companies in competitive environments such as bids, auctions, etc. fail to achieve the anticipated profit or even incur losses. This phenomenon is labelled as the “winner’s curse.” Diverse causes led to the occurrence of this circumstance. Until recently, technical errors were thought to cause most construction estimation errors. Behavioral economics has shown that certain biases in individual decision-making can also contribute to these undesirable situations. Overconfidence is common. This illusion is when a person thinks they are better at making decisions than they really are. The agent-based modeling method was used to examine this bias. This method investigates the system pattern created by heterogeneous individuals with independent macro-level behavior. In this study, individuals can be considered as construction companies. The prevalent pattern in the sector is the phenomenon of the winner's curse. However, focusing solely on the overconfidence effect may not yield meaningful results. Risk aversion is regarded as a protective behavior against the negative effects of the overconfidence. There may also be a correlation between the number of bidders and the winner's curse. This study demonstrates that the phenomenon of the winner's curse exists in all dimensions of the overconfidence effect. When the number of bidders is small, overconfidence behavior has little impact on the winner's curse, but when the number of bidders is medium or large, the winner's curse increases slightly as the overconfidence effect decreases. Risk aversion does not provide any protection against the winner's curse phenomenon.
  • Doctoral Thesis
    A Model for Exploring Legitimization Strategies Used in Architectural Design Competitions
    (Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Aslan, Mina; Kale, Serdar
    Studying the legitimacy of strategic decision has become one of the topical research areas in management due to the increasing demand for ensuring social acceptability and reliability of organizational decisions. Recently, studies dealing with the built environment have also started to examine legitimacy concerns in detail. This thesis aims to explore the concept of legitimacy in the field of built environment by focusing on architectural practice. The main reason to focus on architectural practice is the controversial approaches that prevail about the legitimacy of architectural actions and decisions. A conceptual model is proposed based on an in-depth analysis of the concepts of legitimacy and strategic decision-making in the context of architectural practice. The proposed conceptual model is validated by analyzing thirty-two architectural design competitions. Pragmatic, moral and cognitive legitimacy strategies are analyzed at different phases of competitions that are guidelines, questions, project and jury reports. Research findings, based on the analysis of competition transcripts through Histogram and K-means clustering methods, provide valuable information to understand the legitimacy strategies of different stakeholders better. The research findings also guide stakeholders to improve their justifications for achieving more reliable, valid and socially accepted design decisions. The proposed research methodology constitutes an effective decision analysis approach to evaluate the legitimacy strategies in the built environment.
  • Doctoral Thesis
    A Model for Exploring Evolution of Strategic Alliances in Project-Based Industries - the Case of Construction Industry
    (Izmir Institute of Technology, 2021) Özçekici Olcar, Çisil; Kale, Serdar
    Organizations should be flexible and responsive to today's rapidly changing business environment to sustain their long-term competitive advantage. One important alternative to accomplish this is to engage in strategic alliancing with other organizations. This thesis aims to examine the concept of strategic alliances through networks. It proposes a new configurational model that explores the evolution of strategic alliances in project-based industries with a social network perspective. Here, strategic alliances will be analyzed in terms of configurational network characteristics and alliance project-related characteristics they possess. Turkish Contractors' alliance projects will be under investigation to explore the evolution of an alliance network. This study will utilize a mixed-method technique that can rarely found in construction management studies. Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) will be combined to strengthen the interpretations of the data and, consequently, give a more holistic view of the alliance network phenomenon in the construction industry.
  • Doctoral Thesis
    An Optimization Model for Luminaire Layout Design in Office Spaces: Optimlum
    (Izmir Institute of Technology, 2018) Uygun, İlknur; Kazanasmaz, Tuğçe; Kale, Serdar
    There are several methods used in lighting design. The realistic methods have been developed by the computer graphics which use the engineering computational tools and architectural rendering together. Although lighting designers would design an accurate lighting system which provides desired illuminance levels through computer graphics, it is still necessary to propose optimal and alternative solutions by maximizing comfort conditions and minimizing energy consumption by practical techniques. Thus, the purpose of this study is to propose an optimization model for offices to estimate the accurate layout, number and type of light sources according to visual comfort conditions and energy efficiency. Model is conducted mathematically based on the primary objective which is to provide uniform illumination on work plane with the constraints about vertical illuminances and luminance values. Model named OptimLUM is validated by comparing measurements and simulations. Finally, OptimLUM offer some energy efficient layouts for different office sizes with different number and type of light sources. To be more energy efficient and decrease the energy loads by artificial lighting, these layouts were integrated with daylight. Unlike common lighting design solutions, OptimLUM offers unsymmeterical but more energy efficient layouts by using minimum number of luminaires. According to outputs of the model integrated with daylight, for artificial lighting design in offices, lighting designers should decide on the number and type of luminaires by comparing the darkest and day usage conditions. As a result, by using OptimLUM during the design phase, designers can provide visual comfort conditions for office users while reducing the energy loads of artificial lighting.
  • Doctoral Thesis
    Exploring House Price Dynamics: an Agent-Based Simulation With Behavioral Heterogeneity
    (İzmir Institute of Technology, 2016) Özbakan, Ahmet Tolga; Kale, Serdar
    In contemporary capitalist economies, housing is not only a shelter that satisfies a basic human need. It is also a commodity produced for exchange in markets and an asset for storing and enhancing wealth. As such, its mispricing can have repercussions for individuals, firms, industries, nationwide economies, and for the global economy. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the price dynamics of this complex entity in an analytically tractable framework. In agreement with a recent but growing body of literature, the study shares the view that incorporating insights from behavioral economics can be valuable in such an undertaking. To support this statement, the dissertation first presents a theoretical framework that situates differing views on house prices in a wider split between neoclassical and behavioral economists. Then, the study proposes an agent-based simulation by extending a prominent real estate market model known as the Four Quadrant Model. Specifically, the extended model seeks to explore the extent to which behavioral heterogeneity and dynamic market behavior enhance the existing explanations of house price dynamics. The dissertation validates the proposed model by running a set of experiments with empirical data obtained from Istanbul’s housing market between January 2010 and September 2015. The results suggest that both the inclusion of behavioral heterogeneity and dynamic behavior are relevant in the exploration of house price dynamics. Based on the theoretical framework and the simulation results, the dissertation calls for action on the part of policy makers, researchers, and members of civic and professional organizations.
  • Doctoral Thesis
    A Model for Evaluating the Absorptive Capacity of Architectural Design Teams
    (Izmir Institute of Technology, 2015) Ülkeryıldız, Evren; Kale, Serdar
    The primary challenge facing social actors (i.e., individuals, groups and firms) operating in the Architectural Construction and Engineering (AEC) industry has been delivering value to their stakeholders. The research presented herein addresses this primary challenge in the context of the architectural design teams. It develops a conceptual framework that builds on the concept of absorptive capacity, value theory and activity based theory. The conceptual framework proposes that the absorptive capacity of architectural design teams has significant influence on project outcomes. It also proposes that power relationships, knowledge search mechanisms and social integration mechanisms and of architectural design teams significantly influence their absorptive capacity. These research propositions were empirically tested by a survey of 121 architects operating in Turkey. Research findings based on multiple regression analysis provided mixed support to the research propositions. Research findings suggest that three out of four dimensions of absorptive capacity (i.e., acquisition, transformation and exploitation) have significant impact on project value outcomes but not assimilation. Research findings also suggest that power relationships (i.e., support for innovative/novel design, resource supply and team autonomy), social integration mechanisms (i.e., relationship, structural and cognitive dimensions) and knowledge search mechanisms (i.e., search breadth and depth) have varying degrees of influence on the four dimensions of absorptive capacity.