Robust Scheduling of Crude Oil Farming and Processing Under Uncertainty

Abstract

The sulphur content in crude oil has a significant impact on refinery operations, influencing the feasibility of crude blending, the distribution of product yields, and overall economic performance. Variations in sulphur content introduce uncertainty in the short-term scheduling of crude oil loading, blending, and distillation processes. This study introduces a scenario-based stochastic optimization framework in which sulphur uncertainty is treated as a central modeling element, represented through a regression-based relationship with specific gravity (SG). The approach systematically propagates uncertainty through blending decisions, crude distillation unit (CDU) feed composition, and product yields. The problem is modeled as a mixed-integer quadratically constrained programming (MIQCP) formulation within a continuous-time scheduling framework, enabling the simultaneous optimization of timing, blending, and processing strategies. The results indicate that increased sulphur uncertainty adversely affects the distribution of yields for nine end-products, resulting in profit losses. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly managing compositional uncertainty and provide insights into cost-performance trade-offs in refinery scheduling.