Assessment of Drought in Izmir District Using Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract

One of the main issues with agro-food and socio-economical security in the world is droughts. Regardless of cause or effect, the ever-changing climate is placing increasing strain on water resources pushing supply to its limits. Izmir, a growing city in Turkey, is endowed with variety of water resources, such as lakes, rivers, seashores, and groundwater reserves. Therefore, it is crucial for the planning and development of the area to examine past and foreseeable drought occurrences and their possible impact on water resources. In this regard, the study’s goal is to assess historical droughts in Izmir District. Data from three meteorological stations in Küçük Menderes basin, collected between 1973 and 2020, are utilized in this study. To establish the validity of the posterior drought analysis, the consistency and trend in the time series are first examined using the double mass curve, run test, and linear trend analysis. The next step is to assess the historical deficit related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts using the SPI and moving mean (MA) operator. The temporal analysis of SPI reveals distinct drought patterns across the stations, with multiple moderate to extreme droughts occurring particularly between 1998 and 2010, highlighting significant spatial and temporal variability in drought severity and frequency. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.