Civil Engineering / İnşaat Mühendisliği
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11147/13
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Article Citation - WoS: 72Citation - Scopus: 79Artificial Neural Networks for Estimating Daily Total Suspended Sediment in Natural Streams(IWA Publishing, 2006) Tayfur, Gökmen; Güldal, VeyselEstimates of sediment loads in natural streams are required for a wide spectrum of water resources engineering problems from optimal reservoir design to water quality in lakes. Suspended sediment constitutes 75-95% of the total load. The nonlinear problem of suspended sediment estimation requires a nonlinear model. An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed to predict daily total suspended sediment (TSS) in rivers. The model is constructed as a three-layer feedforward network using the back-propagation algorithm as a training tool. The model predicts TSS rates using precipitation (P) data as input. For network training and testing 240 sets of data sets were used. The model successfully predicted daily TSS loads using the present and past 4 days precipitation data in the input vector with R2 = 0.91 and MAE = 34.22 mg/L. The performance of the model was also tested against the most recently developed non-linear black box model based upon two-dimensional unit sediment graph theory (2D-USGT). The comparison of results revealed that the ANN has a significantly better performance than the 2D-USGT. Investigation results revealed that the ANN model requires a period of more than 75 d of measured P-TSS data for training the model for satisfactory TSS estimation. The statistical parameter range (xmin - xmax) plays a major role for optimal partitioning of data into training and testing sets. Both sets should have comparable values for the range parameter.Article Citation - WoS: 46Citation - Scopus: 49Predicting and Forecasting Flow Discharge at Sites Receiving Significant Lateral Inflow(John Wiley and Sons Inc., 2007) Tayfur, Gökmen; Moramarco, Tommaso; Singh, Vijay P.Two models, one linear and one non-linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non-linear model is based on a multilayer feed-forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow-stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real-time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow-stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4-h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8-h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time.Article Citation - Scopus: 33Modeling Freight Distribution Using Artificial Neural Networks(Elsevier Ltd., 2004) Çelik, Hüseyin MuratStudies about freight distribution modeling are limited due to the limitations in data availability. Existing studies in this subject, generally either use the conventional gravity models or the regression based models as modeling techniques. The present study, using the 1993 US Commodity Flow Survey Data, models inter-regional commodity flows for 48 continental states of the US with three different artificial neural networks (ANN). The results are compared with those of Celik and Guldmann's (2002) Box-Cox Regression Model. The ANN using conventional gravity model variables provides a slight improvement with respect to this Box-Cox model. However, the ANNs using theoretically relevant variables provide surprising improvements in comparison to the Box-Cox model. It is concluded that ANN architecture is a very promising technique for predicting short-term inter-regional commodity flows.Article Citation - WoS: 175Citation - Scopus: 203Fuzzy Logic Model for the Prediction of Cement Compressive Strength(Elsevier Ltd., 2004) Akkurt, Sedat; Tayfur, Gökmen; Can, SeverA fuzzy logic prediction model for the 28-day compressive strength of cement mortar under standard curing conditions was created. Data collected from a cement plant were used in the model construction and testing. The input variables of alkali, Blaine, SO3, and C3S and the output variable of 28-day cement strength were fuzzified by the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs), and triangular membership functions were employed for the fuzzy subsets. The Mamdani fuzzy rules relating the input variables to the output variable were created by the ANN model and were laid out in the If-Then format. Product (prod) inference operator and the centre of gravity (COG; centroid) defuzzification methods were employed. The prediction of 50 sets of the 28-day cement strength data by the developed fuzzy model was quite satisfactory. The average percentage error levels in the fuzzy model were successfully low (2.69%). The model was compared with the ANN model for its error levels and ease of application. The results indicated that through the application of fuzzy logic algorithm, a more user friendly and more explicit model than the ANNs could be produced within successfully low error margins.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 8Forecasting Interregional Commodity Flows Using Artificial Neural Networks: an Evaluation(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2004) Çelik, Hüseyin MuratPrevious studies have concluded that the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is a promising new technique for modelling freight distribution, supporting, the findings of other studies in the area of spatial interaction modelling. However, the forecasting performance of ANNs is still under investigation. This study tests the predictive performance of the ANN Model with respect to a Box-Cox spatial interaction model. It is concluded that the Box-Cox model outperforms ANN in forecasting interregional commodity flows even if ANN had proven calibration superiority in comparison to conventional gravity type models.Article Citation - WoS: 135Citation - Scopus: 157The Use of Ga-Anns in the Modelling of Compressive Strength of Cement Mortar(Elsevier Ltd., 2003) Akkurt, Sedat; Özdemir, Serhan; Tayfur, Gökmen; Akyol, BurakIn this paper, results of a project aimed at modelling the compressive strength of cement mortar under standard curing conditions are reported. Plant data were collected for 6 months for the chemical and physical properties of the cement that were used in model construction and testing. The training and testing data were separated from the complete original data set by the use of genetic algorithms (GAs). A GA-artificial neural network (ANN) model based on the training data of the cement strength was created. Testing of the model was also done within low average error levels (2.24%). The model was subjected to sensitivity analysis to predict the response of the system to different values of the factors affecting the strength. The plots obtained after sensitivity analysis indicated that increasing the amount of C3S, SO3 and surface area led to increased strength within the limits of the model. C2S decreased the strength whereas C3A decreased or increased the strength depending on the SO3 level. Because of the limited data range used for training, the prediction results were good only within the same range. The utility of the model is in the potential ability to control processing parameters to yield the desired strength levels and in providing information regarding the most favourable experimental conditions to obtain maximum compressive strength.Article Citation - WoS: 11Citation - Scopus: 13Experimental and Artificial Neural Network Modeling Study on Soot Formation in Premixed Hydrocarbon Flames(Elsevier Ltd., 2003) İnal, Fikret; Tayfur, Gökmen; Melton, Tyler R.; Senkan, Selim M.The formation of soot in premixed flames of methane, ethane, propane, and butane was studied at three different equivalence ratios. Soot particle sizes, number densities, and volume fractions were determined using classical light scattering measurement techniques. The experimental data revealed that the soot properties were sensitive to the fuel type and combustion parameter equivalence ratio. Increase in equivalence ratio increased the amount of soot formed for each fuel. In addition, methane flames showed larger particle diameters at higher distances above the burner surface and propane, ethane, and butane flames came after the methane flames, respectively. Three-layer, feed-forward type artificial neural networks having seven input neurons, one output neuron, and five hidden neurons for soot particle diameter predictions and seven hidden neurons for volume fraction predictions were used to model the soot properties. The network could not be trained and tested with sufficient accuracy to predict the number density due to a large data range and greater uncertainty in determination of this parameter. The number of complete data set used in the model was 156. There was a good agreement between the experimental and predicted values, and neural networks performed better when predicting output parameters (i.e. soot particle diameters and volume fractions) within the limits of the training data.Article Citation - WoS: 68Citation - Scopus: 86Fuzzy Logic Algorithm for Runoff-Induced Sediment Transport From Bare Soil Surfaces(Elsevier Ltd., 2003) Tayfur, Gökmen; Özdemir, Serhan; Singh, Vijay P.Utilizing the rainfall intensity, and slope data, a fuzzy logic algorithm was developed to estimate sediment loads from bare soil surfaces. Considering slope and rainfall as input variables, the variables were fuzzified into fuzzy subsets. The fuzzy subsets of the variables were considered to have triangular membership functions. The relations among rainfall intensity, slope, and sediment transport were represented by a set of fuzzy rules. The fuzzy rules relating input variables to the output variable of sediment discharge were laid out in the IF-THEN format. The commonly used weighted average method was employed for the defuzzification procedure. The sediment load predicted by the fuzzy model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured sediment load data. Predicting the mean sediment loads from experimental runs, the performance of the fuzzy model was compared with that of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and the physics-based models. The results of showed revealed that the fuzzy model performed better under very high rainfall intensities over different slopes and over very steep slopes under different rainfall intensities. This is closely related to the selection of the shape and frequency of the fuzzy membership functions in the fuzzy model.Article Citation - WoS: 150Citation - Scopus: 171Artificial Neural Networks for Sheet Sediment Transport(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2002) Tayfur, GökmenSheet sediment transport was modelled by artificial neural networks (ANNs). A three-layer feed-forward artificial neural network structure was constructed and a back-propagation algorithm was used for the training of ANNs. Event-based, runoff-driven experimental sediment data were used for the training and testing of the ANNs. In training, data on slope and rainfall intensity were fed into the network as inputs and data on sediment discharge were used as target outputs. The performance of the ANNs was tested against that of the most commonly used physically-based models, whose transport capacity was based on one of the dominant variables-flow velocity (V), shear stress (SS), stream power (SP), and unit stream power (USP). The comparison results revealed that the ANNs performed as well as the physically-based models for simulating nonsteady-state sediment loads from different slopes. The performances of the ANNs and the physically-based models were also quantitatively investigated to estimate mean sediment discharges from experimental runs. The investigation results indicated that better estimations were obtained for V over mild and steep slopes, under low rainfall intensity; for USP over mild and steep slopes, under high rainfall intensity; for SP and SS over very steep slopes, under high rainfall intensity; and for ANNs over steep and very steep slopes, under very high rainfall intensities.