A Study of the Environmental Challenges En Marche Towards Net-Zero: Case Study of Turkish Steel Industry

Abstract

The Turkish steel industry aims to reduce its sectoral carbon dioxide (CO<inf>2</inf>) emissions by 55% by 2030, in line with Türkiye’s Paris Agreement commitments and the European Green Deal (EGD), and consistent with the ambition of the European Union’s economy-wide ‘Fit for 55’ emissions-reduction target. Türkiye faces significant challenges in achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly as a developing country confronting the impacts of climate change and in the market situation, such as the effects of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, limited access to affordable raw materials, and rising operational costs. This study serves as a guideline for the Turkish steel sector’s roadmap towards modernization and eventual compliance with net-zero targets. The consideration and integration of new technologies planned for the Turkish steel industry, in both electric arc furnace (EAF) and blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) facilities, have been outlined in conjunction with green hydrogen and with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies. Four different scenarios were analysed to understand the reduction in CO<inf>2</inf> emissions: (1) In a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario without any reduction, (2) 39.9% CO<inf>2</inf> emission reduction with the Moderate scenario, (3) 59.6% reduction with the Advanced scenario, and (4) 82.9% reduction in CO<inf>2</inf> emissions from the Turkish steel sector with the Net-Zero scenario. To quantify the uncertainty in these long-term projections, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted, generating probabilistic confidence intervals that reinforce the robustness and credibility of the net-zero pathway. The official roadmap for the sector is not available as of today; however, an in-depth discussion with a policy innovation leading to it is the objective of this study. © 2026 by the authors.